AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Segunda División
CadizCadizLDWLL
Full time3-1Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1015:15UK
CeutaCeutaDWDLL

Cadiz 3-1 Ceuta cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined72.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined27.8%

Result

Cadiz3-1Ceuta
7 yellow cardsCadiz 5, Ceuta 2
0 red cardsCadiz 0, Ceuta 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 72.2% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 83.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards72.2%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Andres Fuentes Molina

Recorded match referee.

Andres Fuentes Molina in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 11 1
Goals 3.73 Not available
Yellow cards 5.64 Not available
Red cards 0.27 Not available
Corners 7.8 Not available
Fouls 28.6 Not available
Both teams scored 64% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 82% Not available
Home wins 36% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Cadiz vs Ceuta 3-1 4 Yes 8 0 13 27
10 Jan 2026 Burgos vs Eibar 1-0 1 No 0 0 5 22
21 Dec 2025 Sociedad B vs Ceuta 1-3 4 Yes 10 0 9 30
6 Dec 2025 Huesca vs Valladolid 1-4 5 Yes 6 0 11 27
22 Nov 2025 Eibar vs Zaragoza 1-2 3 Yes 10 1 7 28
8 Nov 2025 La Coruna vs Cultural Leonesa 3-0 3 No 1 0 2 23
25 Oct 2025 Mirandes vs Santander 1-3 4 Yes 7 0 9 43
11 Oct 2025 Sociedad B vs Andorra 3-0 3 No 6 1 6 31
28 Sep 2025 Sp Gijon vs Albacete 3-4 7 Yes 3 0 10 21
14 Sep 2025 Granada vs Leganes 0-2 2 No 5 0 6 30

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cadiz vs Ceuta. The model leans toward Cadiz for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 86.8% 13.2%
3.5 cards 72.2% 27.8%
4.5 cards 54.4% 45.6%
5.5 cards 36.8% 63.2%

Who picks up more cards

Cadiz
43.0%
Level
18.5%
Ceuta
38.5%

Team cards lines

Cadiz

Over 1.5
71.7%
Over 2.5
46.1%

Ceuta

Over 1.5
69.0%
Over 2.5
42.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cadiz's; Ceuta gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Cadiz line Cadiz Ceuta
-1.5 26.0% 74.0%
-0.5 43.0% 57.0%
+0.5 61.5% 38.5%
+1.5 77.5% 22.5%

Red card

Any red card16.6%
Cadiz red card11.0%
Ceuta red card6.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 88.4% 11.6%
22.5 fouls 79.8% 20.2%
24.5 fouls 68.6% 31.4%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 72.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 86.8% for over 2.5 to 36.8% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. Head to head on cards, Cadiz are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 18.5%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Cadiz over 1.5 cards sits at 71.7% and Ceuta at 69.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.6% (Cadiz 11.0%, Ceuta 6.3%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

72.2%Over 3.5 cards
16.6%Any red card
43.0%Most cards: Cadiz
71.7%Cadiz over 1.5 cards
69.0%Ceuta over 1.5 cards
79.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 72.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianCadiz are the pick to collect more cards at 43.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 54.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Cadiz vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 72.2% for Cadiz vs Ceuta.
Will there be a red card in Cadiz vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Cadiz vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cadiz to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 18.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónCadiz fixtures and statsCeuta fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.