AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Segunda División
CadizCadizLDWLL
Full time3-1Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1015:15UK
CeutaCeutaDWDLL

Cadiz 3-1 Ceuta corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined54.8%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined45.2%

Result

Cadiz3-1Ceuta
13 cornersCadiz 3, Ceuta 10
Under 9.5

We called Under 9.5 at 54.8% and it missed (13 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners45.2%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Cadiz.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 69.8% 30.2%
8.5 corners 57.6% 42.4%
9.5 corners 45.2% 54.8%
10.5 corners 33.6% 66.4%
11.5 corners 23.8% 76.3%
12.5 corners 16.0% 84.0%

Who wins the corner count

Cadiz
52.6%
Level
11.1%
Ceuta
36.3%

Team corners lines

Cadiz

Over 3.5
70.6%
Over 4.5
54.5%
Over 5.5
39.0%

Ceuta

Over 3.5
59.5%
Over 4.5
42.1%
Over 5.5
27.2%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cadiz's; Ceuta gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Cadiz line Cadiz Ceuta
-1.5 41.3% 58.7%
-0.5 52.6% 47.4%
+0.5 63.7% 36.3%
+1.5 73.8% 26.2%
CadizCadiz

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Cadiz at home and Ceuta away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CeutaCeuta
Statistic
Cadiz
Ceuta
Corners won per game at this venue
·
4.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
·
2.0

Matches with corner data
5
5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 45.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 69.8% for over 7.5 to 16.0% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.2%. Between the two sides, Cadiz are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.6%, with a level count at 11.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

45.2%Over 9.5 corners
52.6%Most corners: Cadiz
54.5%Cadiz over 4.5 corners
42.1%Ceuta over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Split by side, Cadiz over 4.5 corners sits at 54.5% and Ceuta at 42.1%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 45.2% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderCadiz are the pick to win the corner count at 52.6%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 45.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many corners in Cadiz vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 45.2% for Cadiz vs Ceuta.
Which team will win the corner count in Cadiz vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cadiz to win the corner count at 52.6%, with a level count at 11.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Segunda DivisiónCadiz fixtures and statsCeuta fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.