ChampionshipBristol City vs 
Watford Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 51.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 64.0% for over 22.5 to 28.3% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.6%. On the shot count, Bristol City are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.6%, with a level count at 6.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.3% | 71.7% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
70.4%
53.5%
37.0%
59.1%
41.0%
25.6%
Shot handicap
| Bristol City line | Bristol City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| -2.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| -0.5 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| +0.5 | 61.8% | 38.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.2% | 69.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
13.9Bristol City shots per game13.0Bristol City shots faced per game11.9Watford shots per game15.0Watford shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Bristol City.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
51.6%Over 24.5 shots53.5%Bristol City over 12.5 shots41.0%Watford over 12.5 shots54.3%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Bristol City over 12.5 shots sits at 53.5% and Watford at 41.0%. This season Bristol City have averaged 13.9 shots a game and Watford 11.9.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Bristol City vs Watford?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 51.6% for Bristol City vs Watford.
Which team will have more shots in Bristol City vs Watford?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bristol City to take more shots at 55.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
