AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Premier League
BrightonBrightonWWWLW
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1114:00UK10°C · Clear
BrentfordBrentfordWDLDW

Brighton vs Brentford cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.2%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Brighton vs Brentford. It tips Brentford for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.0% 26.0%
3.5 cards 53.8% 46.2%
4.5 cards 34.3% 65.7%
5.5 cards 19.3% 80.7%

Who picks up more cards

Brighton
34.2%
Level
21.0%
Brentford
44.9%

Team cards lines

Brighton

Over 1.5
53.5%
Over 2.5
26.7%

Brentford

Over 1.5
61.1%
Over 2.5
34.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Brighton's; Brentford gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Brighton line Brighton Brentford
-1.5 17.5% 82.5%
-0.5 34.2% 65.8%
+0.5 55.1% 44.9%
+1.5 74.4% 25.6%

Red card

Any red card11.7%
Brighton red card2.0%
Brentford red card9.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 54.9% 45.1%
22.5 fouls 38.6% 61.4%
24.5 fouls 24.5% 75.5%
BrightonBrighton

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Brighton at home and Brentford away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BrentfordBrentford
Statistic
Brighton
Brentford
Yellow cards per game
2.5
2.7

First-half yellow cards per game
1.2
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
2.0

Matches with card data
3
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 11,340 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.0% for over 2.5 to 19.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. Head to head on cards, Brentford are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.9%, with a level count at 21.0%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Brighton over 1.5 cards sits at 53.5% and Brentford at 61.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.7% (Brighton 2.0%, Brentford 9.9%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

53.8%Over 3.5 cards
11.7%Any red card
44.9%Most cards: Brentford
53.5%Brighton over 1.5 cards
61.1%Brentford over 1.5 cards
38.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.7%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianBrentford are the pick to collect more cards at 44.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 53.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
BrightonBrighton

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BrentfordBrentford
Statistic
Brighton
Brentford
fouls per game
12.9
14.7

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Brighton vs Brentford?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.8% for Brighton vs Brentford.
Will there be a red card in Brighton vs Brentford?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Brighton vs Brentford?
The model rates Brentford to pick up more cards at 44.9%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Premier League, Cards

Newcastle vs Everton cards predictionEverton vs Coventry cards predictionLeeds vs Tottenham cards predictionArsenal vs Hull cards predictionFulham vs Newcastle cards predictionNottingham Forest vs Manchester City cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Premier LeagueBrighton fixtures and statsBrentford fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.