AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
BoltonBoltonWWLWD
Full time1-5Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1020:00UK
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbroughDDWWD

Bolton 1-5 Middlesbrough cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.9%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.1%

Result

Bolton1-5Middlesbrough
1 yellow cardsBolton 1, Middlesbrough 0
0 red cardsBolton 0, Middlesbrough 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 54.9% and it landed (1 in the match). We called No at 86.8% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards45.1%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Simon Hooper

Recorded match referee.

Simon Hooper in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 308 2
Goals 2.83 Not available
Yellow cards 3.51 Not available
Red cards 0.08 Not available
Corners 10.2 Not available
Fouls 23.0 Not available
Both teams scored 54% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 53% Not available
Home wins 45% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Bolton vs Middlesbrough 1-5 6 Yes 1 0 14 18
17 Oct 2026 Wrexham vs Preston 4-1 5 Yes 6 0 10 23
10 Feb 2026 West Ham vs Manchester UnitedPremier League 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 8 14
31 Jan 2026 Liverpool vs NewcastlePremier League 4-1 5 Yes 4 0 18 18
26 Jan 2026 Everton vs LeedsPremier League 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 8 22
3 Jan 2026 Aston Villa vs Nottingham ForestPremier League 3-1 4 Yes 3 0 8 30
27 Dec 2025 Liverpool vs WolvesPremier League 2-1 3 Yes 1 0 10 18
20 Dec 2025 Sheffield United vs Birmingham 3-0 3 No 4 1 12 19
15 Dec 2025 Manchester United vs BournemouthPremier League 4-4 8 Yes 5 0 9 27
7 Dec 2025 Brighton vs West HamPremier League 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 16 20

Simon Hooper referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bolton vs Middlesbrough. Slightly more cards are projected for Middlesbrough for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 66.8% 33.2%
3.5 cards 45.1% 54.9%
4.5 cards 26.4% 73.7%
5.5 cards 13.5% 86.5%

Who picks up more cards

Bolton
38.3%
Level
22.5%
Middlesbrough
39.2%

Team cards lines

Bolton

Over 1.5
51.0%
Over 2.5
24.5%

Middlesbrough

Over 1.5
51.7%
Over 2.5
25.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Bolton's; Middlesbrough gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Bolton line Bolton Middlesbrough
-1.5 19.6% 80.4%
-0.5 38.3% 61.7%
+0.5 60.8% 39.2%
+1.5 79.8% 20.2%

Red card

Any red card13.2%
Bolton red card7.6%
Middlesbrough red card6.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 54.2% 45.8%
22.5 fouls 38.4% 61.6%
24.5 fouls 24.8% 75.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Middlesbrough R Madley 2 2.0 0.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 45.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 66.8% for over 2.5 to 13.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.1%. On the card count, Middlesbrough are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.2%, with a level count at 22.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Bolton over 1.5 cards sits at 51.0% and Middlesbrough at 51.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.2% (Bolton 7.6%, Middlesbrough 6.1%). Middlesbrough’s most frequent referee this season, R Madley, has averaged 2.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

45.1%Over 3.5 cards
13.2%Any red card
39.2%Most cards: Middlesbrough
51.0%Bolton over 1.5 cards
51.7%Middlesbrough over 1.5 cards
38.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 45.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherR Madley, Middlesbrough’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianMiddlesbrough are the pick to collect more cards at 39.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.

FAQ

How many cards in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 45.1% for Bolton vs Middlesbrough.
Will there be a red card in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated Middlesbrough to pick up more cards at 39.2%, with a level count at 22.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipBolton fixtures and statsMiddlesbrough fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.