AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
BoltonBoltonWWLWD
Full time1-5Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1020:00UK
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbroughDDWWD

Bolton 1-5 Middlesbrough corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined57.1%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined42.9%

Result

Bolton1-5Middlesbrough
14 cornersBolton 2, Middlesbrough 12
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 57.1% and it landed (14 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners57.1%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Bolton.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 78.9% 21.1%
8.5 corners 68.6% 31.5%
9.5 corners 57.1% 42.9%
10.5 corners 45.4% 54.6%
11.5 corners 34.5% 65.5%
12.5 corners 25.0% 75.0%

Who wins the corner count

Bolton
54.8%
Level
10.3%
Middlesbrough
34.8%

Team corners lines

Bolton

Over 3.5
77.6%
Over 4.5
63.3%
Over 5.5
48.3%

Middlesbrough

Over 3.5
65.4%
Over 4.5
48.5%
Over 5.5
33.3%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Bolton's; Middlesbrough gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Bolton line Bolton Middlesbrough
-1.5 44.2% 55.8%
-0.5 54.8% 45.2%
+0.5 65.1% 34.8%
+1.5 74.5% 25.6%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 57.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 78.9% for over 7.5 to 25.0% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.4%. Between the two sides, Bolton are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.8%, with a level count at 10.3%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

57.1%Over 9.5 corners
54.8%Most corners: Bolton
63.3%Bolton over 4.5 corners
48.5%Middlesbrough over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

By team, Bolton over 4.5 corners sits at 63.3% and Middlesbrough at 48.5%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 57.1% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderBolton are the pick to win the corner count at 54.8%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 10.5 corners: over sits at 45.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many corners in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 57.1% for Bolton vs Middlesbrough.
Which team will win the corner count in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bolton to win the corner count at 54.8%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

ChampionshipBolton fixtures and statsMiddlesbrough fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.