La Liga
Betis vs 
Osasuna Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 50.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 63.1% for over 22.5 to 27.1% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.5%. On the shot count, Betis are the model’s pick to have more shots at 68.4%, with a level count at 5.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 38.2% | 61.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 27.1% | 72.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
76.9%
61.5%
45.1%
48.5%
30.6%
17.2%
Shot handicap
| Betis line | Betis | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| -2.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| -0.5 | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| +0.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 40.9% | 59.1% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
9.3 / 9.2
4.2 / 5.2
This season (2026/27)
18.5Betis shots per game14.3Betis shots faced per game9.3Betis first-half shots9.2Betis second-half shots9.3Osasuna shots per game11.8Osasuna shots faced per game4.2Osasuna first-half shots5.2Osasuna second-half shotsShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Betis.
In-depth analysis
50.5%Over 24.5 shots61.5%Betis over 12.5 shots30.6%Osasuna over 12.5 shots65.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Betis over 12.5 shots sits at 61.5% and Osasuna at 30.6%. This season Betis have averaged 18.5 shots a game and Osasuna 9.3. Betis take 9.3 shots before half-time and 9.2 after, Osasuna 4.2 and 5.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Betis vs Osasuna?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 50.5% for Betis vs Osasuna.
Which team will have more shots in Betis vs Osasuna?
The model rates Betis to take more shots at 68.4%.
Do Betis shoot more in the first or second half?
Betis average 9.3 shots before half-time and 9.2 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
