La Liga
Betis vs 
Osasuna Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 62.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 79.7% for over 2.5 to 27.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.5%. On the card count, Osasuna are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.8%, with a level count at 18.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.5% | 72.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
56.1%
30.0%
68.5%
43.4%
Card handicap
| Betis line | Betis | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.6% | 83.4% |
| -0.5 | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| +0.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| +1.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 47.1% | 52.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.3Betis cards per game9.8Betis fouls per game2.3Osasuna cards per game12.8Osasuna fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Betis vs Osasuna. Slightly more cards are projected for Osasuna for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
62.1%Over 3.5 cards14.2%Any red card56.1%Betis over 1.5 cards68.5%Osasuna over 1.5 cards61.0%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Betis over 1.5 cards sits at 56.1% and Osasuna at 68.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.2% (Betis 7.9%, Osasuna 6.8%). This season Betis have averaged 1.3 cards a game and Osasuna 2.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Betis vs Osasuna?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 62.1% for Betis vs Osasuna.
Will there be a red card in Betis vs Osasuna?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Betis vs Osasuna?
The model rates Osasuna to pick up more cards at 49.8%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
