Süper Lig
Samsunspor vs 
Trabzonspor Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 45.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.8% for over 7.5 to 17.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.7%. On the corner count, Samsunspor are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 51.0%, with a level count at 10.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.3% | 74.7% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.3% | 82.7% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
70.0%
54.1%
38.9%
61.3%
44.3%
29.5%
Corner handicap
| Samsunspor line | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| -0.5 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| +0.5 | 61.9% | 38.2% |
| +1.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
This season (2026/27)
3.8Samsunspor corners won per game5.5Samsunspor corners conceded per game5.7Trabzonspor corners won per game2.8Trabzonspor corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Samsunspor.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
46.7%Over 9.5 corners54.1%Samsunspor over 4.5 corners44.3%Trabzonspor over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Samsunspor over 4.5 corners sits at 54.1% and Trabzonspor at 44.3%. This season Samsunspor have averaged 3.8 corners won a game and Trabzonspor 5.7.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 46.7% for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor.
Which team will win the corner count in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
The model rates Samsunspor to win the corner count at 51.0%, with a level count at 10.9%.
How many corners do Samsunspor and Trabzonspor average this season?
Samsunspor have won 3.8 corners a game this season and Trabzonspor 5.7.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,686 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
