Süper Lig
Alanyaspor vs 
Erzurumspor Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 45.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 70.8% for over 7.5 to 17.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.7%. Head to head on corners, Alanyaspor are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.2%, with a level count at 10.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.3% | 74.7% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.3% | 82.7% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
73.0%
57.8%
42.6%
57.3%
40.1%
25.8%
Corner handicap
| Alanyaspor line | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 25.3% | 74.7% |
| -1.5 | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| -0.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| +0.5 | 66.8% | 33.2% |
This season (2026/27)
5.3Alanyaspor corners won per game3.7Alanyaspor corners conceded per game3.2Erzurumspor corners won per game4.5Erzurumspor corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Alanyaspor.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
46.7%Over 9.5 corners57.8%Alanyaspor over 4.5 corners40.1%Erzurumspor over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Alanyaspor over 4.5 corners sits at 57.8% and Erzurumspor at 40.1%. This season Alanyaspor have averaged 5.3 corners won a game and Erzurumspor 3.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 46.7% for Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor.
Which team will win the corner count in Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor?
The model rates Alanyaspor to win the corner count at 56.2%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How many corners do Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor average this season?
Alanyaspor have won 5.3 corners a game this season and Erzurumspor 3.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,686 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
