Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs 
Augsburg Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 11.8% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Werder Bremen have averaged 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded, Augsburg 2.6 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 57.5% for over 2.5 and 80.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
| 1-0 | 7.1% |
| 0-1 | 6.8% |
| 2-2 | 6.3% |
| 2-0 | 5.8% |
| 0-0 | 5.6% |
Score probability grid
| Werder Bremen \ Augsburg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | · | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Werder Bremen goals, columns = Augsburg. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
60.7%Both Teams to Score57.5%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 57.5% for three or more goals and 80.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Werder Bremen favoured at 39.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Werder Bremen 1 · 2 draws · Augsburg 2 · 2.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Werder Bremen vs Augsburg?
The model's most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Augsburg is 1-1 at 11.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.