AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
AZ AlkmaarAZ AlkmaarWDWLD
Full time0-2Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1019:00UK
TwenteTwenteWWWDL

AZ Alkmaar 0-2 Twente cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined68%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined32%

Result

AZ Alkmaar0-2Twente
4 yellow cardsAZ Alkmaar 3, Twente 1
1 red cardsAZ Alkmaar 0, Twente 1
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 68.0% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 90.0% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards32.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Alex Bos

Recorded match referee.

Alex Bos in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 23 6
Goals 3.61 4.67
Yellow cards 2.83 2.33
Red cards 0.22 0.17
Corners 10.4 10.5
Fouls 21.7 19.8
Both teams scored 70% 67%
Over 2.5 goals 65% 83%
Home wins 22% 17%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 AZ Alkmaar vs Twente 0-2 2 No 6 1 9 33
18 Oct 2026 Nijmegen vs For Sittard 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 13 21
13 Sep 2026 Zwolle vs Feyenoord 0-7 7 No 0 0 11 17
29 Aug 2026 AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles 5-2 7 Yes 0 0 12 15
16 Aug 2026 Ajax vs Heerenveen 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 9 18
8 Aug 2026 PSV Eindhoven vs For Sittard 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 9 15
10 May 2026 Groningen vs Nijmegen 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 11 28
2 May 2026 Utrecht vs NAC Breda 2-0 2 No 2 1 12 25
11 Apr 2026 Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven 0-2 2 No 7 0 7 18
4 Apr 2026 Excelsior vs Nijmegen 0-2 2 No 0 0 7 17

Alex Bos referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente. It tips Twente for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 54.1% 45.9%
3.5 cards 32.0% 68.0%
4.5 cards 16.2% 83.8%
5.5 cards 7.2% 92.8%

Who picks up more cards

AZ Alkmaar
34.8%
Level
24.9%
Twente
40.4%

Team cards lines

AZ Alkmaar

Over 1.5
39.5%
Over 2.5
15.9%

Twente

Over 1.5
43.7%
Over 2.5
19.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is AZ Alkmaar's; Twente gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

AZ Alkmaar line AZ Alkmaar Twente
-1.5 15.8% 84.2%
-0.5 34.8% 65.2%
+0.5 59.7% 40.4%
+1.5 80.3% 19.7%

Red card

Any red card10.0%
AZ Alkmaar red card2.4%
Twente red card7.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 53.2% 46.8%
22.5 fouls 37.9% 62.1%
24.5 fouls 24.7% 75.3%
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means AZ Alkmaar at home and Twente away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

TwenteTwente
Statistic
AZ Alkmaar
Twente
Yellow cards per game
0.8
·

First-half yellow cards per game
0.0
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
·

Matches with card data
4
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 32.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 54.1% for over 2.5 to 7.2% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.1%. On the card count, Twente are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.4%, with a level count at 24.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 cards sits at 39.5% and Twente at 43.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.0% (AZ Alkmaar 2.4%, Twente 7.8%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

32.0%Over 3.5 cards
10.0%Any red card
40.4%Most cards: Twente
39.5%AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 cards
43.7%Twente over 1.5 cards
37.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 32.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 10.0%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianTwente are the pick to collect more cards at 40.4%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 2.5 cards: over sits at 54.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

TwenteTwente
Statistic
AZ Alkmaar
Twente
fouls per game
10.3
·

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 32.0% for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente.
Will there be a red card in AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Before kickoff, the model rated Twente to pick up more cards at 40.4%, with a level count at 24.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.