AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
AugsburgAugsburgWDLDL
Full time1-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1014:30UK
Union BerlinUnion BerlinLLLWD

Augsburg 1-1 Union Berlin cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.7%

Result

Augsburg1-1Union Berlin
3 yellow cardsAugsburg 0, Union Berlin 3
2 red cardsAugsburg 1, Union Berlin 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 53.3% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 88.9% and it missed (2 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Robin Braun

Recorded match referee.

Robin Braun in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 19 4
Goals 3.00 Not available
Yellow cards 4.37 Not available
Red cards 0.26 Not available
Corners 7.8 Not available
Fouls 22.9 Not available
Both teams scored 58% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 53% Not available
Home wins 37% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Augsburg vs Union Berlin 1-1 2 Yes 3 2 6 19
18 Oct 2026 Dresden vs Magdeburg2. Bundesliga 2-0 2 No 1 0 3 17
20 Sep 2026 Schalke 04 vs Elversberg 0-0 0 No 3 0 8 20
5 Sep 2026 Leverkusen vs Union Berlin 4-0 4 No 4 0 12 23
8 May 2026 Paderborn vs Karlsruhe2. Bundesliga 2-2 4 Yes 5 0 5 18
26 Apr 2026 Dortmund vs Freiburg 4-0 4 No 1 0 5 29
18 Apr 2026 Bielefeld vs Nurnberg2. Bundesliga 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 4 25
21 Mar 2026 Heidenheim vs Leverkusen 3-3 6 Yes 8 0 7 23
15 Mar 2026 Schalke 04 vs Hannover2. Bundesliga 2-2 4 Yes 3 1 6 26
20 Feb 2026 Mainz vs Hamburg 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 9 29

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Augsburg vs Union Berlin. It tips Augsburg for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.7% 26.4%
3.5 cards 53.3% 46.7%
4.5 cards 33.9% 66.1%
5.5 cards 18.9% 81.1%

Who picks up more cards

Augsburg
39.4%
Level
21.2%
Union Berlin
39.4%

Team cards lines

Augsburg

Over 1.5
57.1%
Over 2.5
30.1%

Union Berlin

Over 1.5
57.1%
Over 2.5
30.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Augsburg's; Union Berlin gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Augsburg line Augsburg Union Berlin
-1.5 21.3% 78.7%
-0.5 39.4% 60.6%
+0.5 60.6% 39.4%
+1.5 78.8% 21.3%

Red card

Any red card11.1%
Augsburg red card4.5%
Union Berlin red card7.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 53.4% 46.6%
22.5 fouls 40.9% 59.1%
24.5 fouls 29.7% 70.3%
AugsburgAugsburg

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Augsburg at home and Union Berlin away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Union BerlinUnion Berlin
Statistic
Augsburg
Union Berlin
Yellow cards per game
1.6
2.4

First-half yellow cards per game
1.2
1.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.4
1.0

Matches with card data
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.7% for over 2.5 to 18.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.3%. Head to head on cards, Augsburg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.4%, with a level count at 21.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Augsburg over 1.5 cards sits at 57.1% and Union Berlin at 57.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.1% (Augsburg 4.5%, Union Berlin 7.0%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

53.3%Over 3.5 cards
11.1%Any red card
39.4%Most cards: Augsburg
57.1%Augsburg over 1.5 cards
57.1%Union Berlin over 1.5 cards
40.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianAugsburg are the pick to collect more cards at 39.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 53.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
AugsburgAugsburg

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Union BerlinUnion Berlin
Statistic
Augsburg
Union Berlin
fouls per game
9.0
11.4

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.3% for Augsburg vs Union Berlin.
Will there be a red card in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Before kickoff, the model rated Augsburg to pick up more cards at 39.4%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Cards predictions today

Related

BundesligaAugsburg fixtures and statsUnion Berlin fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.