La Liga
Ath Madrid vs 
Osasuna Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 48.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.4% for over 7.5 to 19.0% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.5%. Head to head on corners, Ath Madrid are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 63.2%, with a level count at 9.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 9.5 corners | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 10.5 corners | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 27.4% | 72.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 19.0% | 81.1% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
78.4%
64.4%
49.4%
53.8%
36.3%
22.4%
Corner handicap
| Ath Madrid line | Ath Madrid | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| -1.5 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| -0.5 | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| +0.5 | 73.2% | 26.8% |
This season (2026/27)
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Ath Madrid.
In-depth analysis
By team, Ath Madrid over 4.5 corners sits at 64.4% and Osasuna at 36.3%. This season Ath Madrid have averaged 4.8 corners won a game and Osasuna 3.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Ath Madrid vs Osasuna?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 49.5% for Ath Madrid vs Osasuna.
Which team will win the corner count in Ath Madrid vs Osasuna?
The model rates Ath Madrid to win the corner count at 63.2%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How many corners do Ath Madrid and Osasuna average this season?
Ath Madrid have won 4.8 corners a game this season and Osasuna 3.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,617 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.