La Liga
Ath Madrid vs 
Osasuna Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 47.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 59.8% for over 22.5 to 24.3% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.0%. On the shot count, Ath Madrid are the model’s pick to have more shots at 67.7%, with a level count at 5.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 34.8% | 65.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 24.3% | 75.7% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.7%
58.7%
42.2%
46.5%
28.8%
15.9%
Shot handicap
| Ath Madrid line | Ath Madrid | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| -2.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| -0.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| +0.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 37.6% | 62.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
6.6 / 8.2
4.6 / 6.0
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
This season (2026/27)
14.8Ath Madrid shots per game11.4Ath Madrid shots faced per game6.6Ath Madrid first-half shots8.2Ath Madrid second-half shots10.6Osasuna shots per game8.8Osasuna shots faced per game4.6Osasuna first-half shots6.0Osasuna second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Ath Madrid.
In-depth analysis
47.0%Over 24.5 shots58.7%Ath Madrid over 12.5 shots28.8%Osasuna over 12.5 shots62.6%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Ath Madrid over 12.5 shots sits at 58.7% and Osasuna at 28.8%. This season Ath Madrid have averaged 14.8 shots a game and Osasuna 10.6. Ath Madrid take 6.6 shots before half-time and 8.2 after, Osasuna 4.6 and 6.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Ath Madrid vs Osasuna?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 47.0% for Ath Madrid vs Osasuna.
Which team will have more shots in Ath Madrid vs Osasuna?
The model rates Ath Madrid to take more shots at 67.7%.
Do Ath Madrid shoot more in the first or second half?
Ath Madrid average 6.6 shots before half-time and 8.2 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,699 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.