La Liga
Levante vs 
Ath Bilbao Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 49.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.4% for over 7.5 to 19.9% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.9%. Head to head on corners, Levante are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.1%, with a level count at 10.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| 10.5 corners | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| 11.5 corners | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 19.9% | 80.1% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
73.1%
57.7%
42.3%
63.5%
46.4%
31.2%
Corner handicap
| Levante line | Levante | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| -0.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| +0.5 | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| +1.5 | 72.7% | 27.4% |
This season (2026/27)
3.4Levante corners won per game5.6Levante corners conceded per game6.4Ath Bilbao corners won per game5.6Ath Bilbao corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Levante.
In-depth analysis
50.9%Over 9.5 corners57.7%Levante over 4.5 corners46.4%Ath Bilbao over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Levante over 4.5 corners sits at 57.7% and Ath Bilbao at 46.4%. This season Levante have averaged 3.4 corners won a game and Ath Bilbao 6.4.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Levante vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 50.9% for Levante vs Ath Bilbao.
Which team will win the corner count in Levante vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates Levante to win the corner count at 52.1%, with a level count at 10.8%.
How many corners do Levante and Ath Bilbao average this season?
Levante have won 3.4 corners a game this season and Ath Bilbao 6.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,756 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 16 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
