La Liga
Vallecano vs 
Espanol Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 52.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 76.6% for over 7.5 to 22.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. On the corner count, Vallecano are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.9%, with a level count at 10.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 53.8% | 46.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.1% | 77.9% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
77.6%
63.4%
48.3%
60.9%
43.6%
28.7%
Corner handicap
| Vallecano line | Vallecano | Espanol |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 27.2% | 72.8% |
| -1.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| -0.5 | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| +0.5 | 68.2% | 31.9% |
This season (2026/27)
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Vallecano.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Vallecano over 4.5 corners sits at 63.4% and Espanol at 43.6%. This season Vallecano have averaged 6.0 corners won a game and Espanol 1.4.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Vallecano vs Espanol?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 53.8% for Vallecano vs Espanol.
Which team will win the corner count in Vallecano vs Espanol?
The model rates Vallecano to win the corner count at 57.9%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How many corners do Vallecano and Espanol average this season?
Vallecano have won 6.0 corners a game this season and Espanol 1.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,756 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.