La Liga
Alaves vs 
Valencia Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 49.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.7% for over 7.5 to 20.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. On the corner count, Alaves are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.6%, with a level count at 10.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 74.7% | 25.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| 9.5 corners | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 28.9% | 71.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 20.1% | 79.9% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
76.3%
61.6%
46.4%
59.6%
42.2%
27.4%
Corner handicap
| Alaves line | Alaves | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 26.5% | 73.5% |
| -1.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| -0.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| +0.5 | 68.0% | 32.1% |
This season (2026/27)
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Alaves.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Alaves over 4.5 corners sits at 61.6% and Valencia at 42.2%. This season Alaves have averaged 5.4 corners won a game and Valencia 3.8.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Alaves vs Valencia?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.2% for Alaves vs Valencia.
Which team will win the corner count in Alaves vs Valencia?
The model rates Alaves to win the corner count at 57.6%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How many corners do Alaves and Valencia average this season?
Alaves have won 5.4 corners a game this season and Valencia 3.8.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,756 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.