La Liga
Ath Madrid vs 
Osasuna Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 11.6% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Ath Madrid have averaged 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, Osasuna 1.0 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 51.9% for over 2.5 and 76.6% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% |
| 2-0 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 0-0 | 6.9% |
| 3-0 | 6.0% |
| 3-1 | 5.8% |
| 0-1 | 5.7% |
Score probability grid
| Ath Madrid \ Osasuna | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 11% | 12% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Ath Madrid goals, columns = Osasuna. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.6%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
52.1%Both Teams to Score51.9%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 51.9% for three or more goals and 76.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Ath Madrid favoured at 57.7%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ath Madrid 3 · 0 draws · Osasuna 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Ath Madrid vs Osasuna?
The model's most likely scoreline for Ath Madrid vs Osasuna is 1-1 at 11.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 16 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More La Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
