Shots
| Over 22.5 |
57.5% |
Over 24.5 |
44.6% |
Over 26.5 |
32.7% |
Over 28.5 |
22.5% |
| Most: La Coruna |
61.4% |
Most: Sevilla |
32.5% |
| La Coruna Over 13.2 |
44.2% |
Sevilla Over 13.2 |
24.5% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
73.1% |
Over 7.5 |
60.7% |
Over 8.5 |
47.8% |
Over 9.5 |
35.6% |
| Most: La Coruna |
57.0% |
Most: Sevilla |
30.6% |
| La Coruna Over 4.2 |
51.4% |
Sevilla Over 4.2 |
32.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
83.1% |
Over 3.5 |
67.1% |
Over 4.5 |
49.0% |
| Most: La Coruna |
33.3% |
Most: Sevilla |
48.4% |
| La Coruna Over 1.8 |
61.1% |
Sevilla Over 1.8 |
70.8% |
La Coruna: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
2.66 |
1.52 |
0.55 |
70.6% |
63.1% |
35.8% |
| Adama Traoré |
1.73 |
0.49 |
0.05 |
15.5% |
12.0% |
1.7% |
| Mario Soriano |
0.78 |
0.2 |
0 |
15.7% |
14.4% |
0.0% |
| Giacomo Quagliata |
0.83 |
0.17 |
0 |
15.6% |
20.2% |
0.0% |
| Giménez |
0.52 |
0.12 |
0 |
8.9% |
6.3% |
0.0% |
Sevilla: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Alfon |
2.61 |
1.42 |
0.32 |
49.0% |
35.1% |
14.1% |
| Lucas Stassin |
2.07 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
56.2% |
46.0% |
36.2% |
| Isaac Romero |
2.18 |
0.72 |
0.23 |
37.8% |
42.2% |
14.1% |
| Chidera Ejuke |
2.14 |
0.59 |
0.21 |
18.8% |
17.5% |
7.1% |
| Peque |
1.63 |
0.54 |
0.17 |
22.0% |
17.3% |
7.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| La Coruna clean sheet |
29.5% |
| Sevilla clean sheet |
28.0% |
| La Coruna win to nil |
20.6% |
| Sevilla win to nil |
19.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
37.0% |
draw |
28.3% |
away |
34.6% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
65.4% |
12 |
71.7% |
X2 |
63.0% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
20.5% |
home_by_2 |
10.9% |
home_by_3plus |
5.7% |
| away_by_1 |
19.6% |
away_by_2 |
10.0% |
away_by_3plus |
5.0% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
9.0% |
0-1 |
9.5% |
0-2 |
6.2% |
| 0-3 |
2.5% |
0-4 |
0.8% |
0-5 |
0.2% |
| 1-0 |
9.9% |
1-1 |
13.4% |
1-2 |
7.8% |
| 1-3 |
3.2% |
1-4 |
1.0% |
1-5 |
0.2% |
| 2-0 |
6.7% |
2-1 |
8.1% |
2-2 |
5.0% |
| 2-3 |
2.0% |
2-4 |
0.6% |
2-5 |
0.2% |
| 3-0 |
2.8% |
3-1 |
3.5% |
3-2 |
2.1% |
| 3-3 |
0.9% |
3-4 |
0.3% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
0.9% |
4-1 |
1.1% |
4-2 |
0.7% |
| 4-3 |
0.3% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.2% |
5-1 |
0.3% |
5-2 |
0.2% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
13.4% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
91.0% |
under_0.5 |
9.0% |
over_1.5 |
71.7% |
| under_1.5 |
28.3% |
over_2.5 |
45.4% |
under_2.5 |
54.6% |
| over_3.5 |
24.1% |
under_3.5 |
75.9% |
over_4.5 |
10.8% |
| under_4.5 |
89.2% |
over_5.5 |
4.2% |
under_5.5 |
95.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
71.9% |
under_0.5 |
28.1% |
over_1.5 |
36.3% |
| under_1.5 |
63.7% |
over_2.5 |
13.6% |
under_2.5 |
86.4% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
70.4% |
under_0.5 |
29.6% |
over_1.5 |
34.5% |
| under_1.5 |
65.5% |
over_2.5 |
12.6% |
under_2.5 |
87.4% |
|
most
| home |
37.0% |
draw |
28.3% |
away |
34.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
5.7% |
away_+2.5 |
94.3% |
home_-1.5 |
16.6% |
| away_+1.5 |
83.4% |
home_-0.5 |
37.0% |
away_+0.5 |
63.0% |
| home_+0.5 |
65.4% |
away_-0.5 |
34.6% |
home_+1.5 |
84.9% |
| away_-1.5 |
15.1% |
home_+2.5 |
95.0% |
away_-2.5 |
5.0% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
9.0% |
exact_1 |
19.4% |
exact_2 |
26.3% |
| exact_3 |
21.3% |
exact_4 |
13.3% |
exact_5 |
6.6% |
| exact_6 |
2.8% |
exact_7plus |
1.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
52.3% |
draw |
34.1% |
away |
13.6% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
76.7% |
under_0.5 |
23.3% |
over_1.5 |
42.8% |
| under_1.5 |
57.2% |
over_2.5 |
18.1% |
under_2.5 |
81.9% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
23.3% |
exact_1 |
33.9% |
exact_2 |
24.7% |
| exact_3 |
12.0% |
exact_4plus |
6.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
38.8% |
draw |
36.8% |
away |
24.5% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
77.0% |
under_0.5 |
23.0% |
over_1.5 |
43.2% |
| under_1.5 |
56.8% |
over_2.5 |
18.4% |
under_2.5 |
81.6% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
43.9% |
H/D |
6.3% |
H/A |
2.1% |
| D/H |
13.2% |
D/D |
12.5% |
D/A |
8.4% |
| A/H |
1.6% |
A/D |
3.1% |
A/A |
9.0% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
73.1% |
under_7.5 |
26.9% |
over_8.5 |
61.4% |
| under_8.5 |
38.6% |
over_9.5 |
49.1% |
under_9.5 |
50.9% |
| over_10.5 |
37.4% |
under_10.5 |
62.6% |
over_11.5 |
27.1% |
| under_11.5 |
72.9% |
over_12.5 |
18.7% |
under_12.5 |
81.3% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
73.2% |
under_3.5 |
26.8% |
over_4.5 |
57.7% |
| under_4.5 |
42.3% |
over_5.5 |
42.3% |
under_5.5 |
57.7% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
61.2% |
under_3.5 |
38.8% |
over_4.5 |
43.9% |
| under_4.5 |
56.1% |
over_5.5 |
29.0% |
under_5.5 |
71.0% |
|
most
| home |
53.7% |
draw |
10.8% |
away |
35.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
23.1% |
away_+3.5 |
76.9% |
home_-1.5 |
42.6% |
| away_+1.5 |
57.4% |
home_-0.5 |
53.7% |
away_+0.5 |
46.4% |
| home_+0.5 |
64.4% |
away_-0.5 |
35.6% |
home_+1.5 |
74.2% |
| away_-1.5 |
25.8% |
home_+3.5 |
88.5% |
away_-3.5 |
11.5% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
57.5% |
under_22.5 |
42.5% |
over_24.5 |
44.6% |
| under_24.5 |
55.4% |
over_26.5 |
32.7% |
under_26.5 |
67.3% |
| over_28.5 |
22.5% |
under_28.5 |
77.5% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
69.7% |
under_10.5 |
30.3% |
over_12.5 |
52.7% |
| under_12.5 |
47.3% |
over_14.5 |
36.2% |
under_14.5 |
63.8% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
49.9% |
under_10.5 |
50.1% |
over_12.5 |
31.9% |
| under_12.5 |
68.1% |
over_14.5 |
18.3% |
under_14.5 |
81.8% |
|
most
| home |
61.4% |
draw |
6.1% |
away |
32.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
35.8% |
away_+4.5 |
64.2% |
home_-2.5 |
48.5% |
| away_+2.5 |
51.5% |
home_-0.5 |
61.4% |
away_+0.5 |
38.6% |
| home_+0.5 |
67.5% |
away_-0.5 |
32.5% |
home_+2.5 |
78.3% |
| away_-2.5 |
21.7% |
home_+4.5 |
86.7% |
away_-4.5 |
13.3% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
73.1% |
under_6.5 |
26.9% |
over_7.5 |
60.7% |
| under_7.5 |
39.3% |
over_8.5 |
47.8% |
under_8.5 |
52.2% |
| over_9.5 |
35.6% |
under_9.5 |
64.4% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
68.7% |
under_3.5 |
31.3% |
over_4.5 |
51.4% |
| under_4.5 |
48.6% |
over_5.5 |
35.2% |
under_5.5 |
64.8% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
50.5% |
under_3.5 |
49.5% |
over_4.5 |
32.3% |
| under_4.5 |
67.7% |
over_5.5 |
18.5% |
under_5.5 |
81.5% |
|
most
| home |
57.0% |
draw |
12.5% |
away |
30.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
31.5% |
away_+2.5 |
68.5% |
home_-0.5 |
57.0% |
| away_+0.5 |
43.0% |
home_+0.5 |
69.4% |
away_-0.5 |
30.6% |
| home_+2.5 |
87.9% |
away_-2.5 |
12.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
83.1% |
under_2.5 |
16.9% |
over_3.5 |
67.1% |
| under_3.5 |
32.9% |
over_4.5 |
49.0% |
under_4.5 |
51.0% |
| over_5.5 |
32.3% |
under_5.5 |
67.7% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
61.1% |
under_1.5 |
38.9% |
over_2.5 |
34.9% |
| under_2.5 |
65.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
70.8% |
under_1.5 |
29.2% |
over_2.5 |
46.1% |
| under_2.5 |
53.9% |
most
| home |
33.3% |
draw |
18.4% |
away |
48.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
18.4% |
away_+1.5 |
81.6% |
home_-0.5 |
33.3% |
| away_+0.5 |
66.7% |
home_+0.5 |
51.6% |
away_-0.5 |
48.4% |
| home_+1.5 |
69.4% |
away_-1.5 |
30.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
81.5% |
under_20.5 |
18.6% |
over_22.5 |
70.3% |
| under_22.5 |
29.7% |
over_24.5 |
57.4% |
under_24.5 |
42.6% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
75.9% |
under_9.5 |
24.1% |
over_11.5 |
57.5% |
| under_11.5 |
42.6% |
over_13.5 |
38.5% |
under_13.5 |
61.5% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
81.1% |
under_9.5 |
18.9% |
over_11.5 |
64.5% |
| under_11.5 |
35.5% |
over_13.5 |
45.9% |
under_13.5 |
54.1% |
|
most
| home |
41.4% |
draw |
6.7% |
away |
51.9% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
23.4% |
away_+3.5 |
76.6% |
home_-0.5 |
41.4% |
| away_+0.5 |
58.6% |
home_+2.5 |
61.6% |
away_-2.5 |
38.4% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
La Liga
La Coruna
Sevilla