AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
Ath MadridAth MadridWWWWW
Full time1-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1020:00UK15°C · Clearing
La CorunaLa CorunaDLDLD

Atletico Madrid 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined51.3%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined48.7%

Result

Ath Madrid1-0La Coruna
7 cornersAth Madrid 3, La Coruna 4
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 51.3% and it missed (7 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners51.3%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Ath Madrid.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 74.7% 25.3%
8.5 corners 63.4% 36.6%
9.5 corners 51.3% 48.7%
10.5 corners 39.6% 60.4%
11.5 corners 29.1% 70.9%
12.5 corners 20.3% 79.7%

Who wins the corner count

Ath Madrid
60.1%
Level
10.2%
La Coruna
29.7%

Team corners lines

Ath Madrid

Over 3.5
77.6%
Over 4.5
63.4%
Over 5.5
48.3%

La Coruna

Over 3.5
57.6%
Over 4.5
40.1%
Over 5.5
25.7%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Ath Madrid's; La Coruna gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Ath Madrid line Ath Madrid La Coruna
-3.5 28.7% 71.3%
-1.5 49.3% 50.7%
-0.5 60.1% 39.9%
+0.5 70.3% 29.7%
Ath MadridAth Madrid

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Ath Madrid at home and La Coruna away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

La CorunaLa Coruna
Statistic
Ath Madrid
La Coruna
Corners won per game at this venue
·
4.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
·
5.7

Matches with corner data
5
5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 51.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.7% for over 7.5 to 20.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.3%. Head to head on corners, Ath Madrid are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.1%, with a level count at 10.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

51.3%Over 9.5 corners
60.1%Most corners: Ath Madrid
63.4%Ath Madrid over 4.5 corners
40.1%La Coruna over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Split by side, Ath Madrid over 4.5 corners sits at 63.4% and La Coruna at 40.1%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.3% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderAth Madrid are the pick to win the corner count at 60.1%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 51.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many corners in Ath Madrid vs La Coruna?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 51.3% for Ath Madrid vs La Coruna.
Which team will win the corner count in Ath Madrid vs La Coruna?
Before kickoff, the model rated Ath Madrid to win the corner count at 60.1%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

La LigaAtletico Madrid fixtures and statsDeportivo La Coruna fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.