AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
Ath MadridAth MadridWWWWW
Full time1-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1020:00UK15°C · Clearing
La CorunaLa CorunaDLDLD

Atletico Madrid 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.3%

Result

Ath Madrid1-0La Coruna
7 yellow cardsAth Madrid 4, La Coruna 3
0 red cardsAth Madrid 0, La Coruna 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 57.7% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 73.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards57.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

José María Sánchez Martínez

Recorded match referee.

José María Sánchez Martínez in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 21 4
Goals 2.76 Not available
Yellow cards 4.43 Not available
Red cards 0.14 Not available
Corners 8.5 Not available
Fouls 28.1 Not available
Both teams scored 48% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 48% Not available
Home wins 67% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Ath Madrid vs La Coruna 1-0 1 No 6 0 7 17
17 Sep 2026 Betis vs Getafe 1-0 1 No 0 0 7 37
6 Sep 2026 Alaves vs Osasuna 5-2 7 Yes 3 0 5 27
22 Aug 2026 Espanol vs Real Madrid 1-2 3 Yes 6 0 8 26
23 May 2026 Real Madrid vs Ath Bilbao 4-2 6 Yes 2 0 3 26
13 May 2026 Getafe vs Mallorca 3-1 4 Yes 7 0 6 35
4 May 2026 Sevilla vs Sociedad 1-0 1 No 4 0 6 30
21 Apr 2026 Real Madrid vs Alaves 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 15 26
5 Apr 2026 Getafe vs Ath Bilbao 2-0 2 No 4 0 7 22
15 Mar 2026 Barcelona vs Sevilla 5-2 7 Yes 1 0 7 19

José María Sánchez Martínez referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ath Madrid vs La Coruna. Slightly more cards are projected for La Coruna for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.5% 23.5%
3.5 cards 57.7% 42.3%
4.5 cards 38.7% 61.3%
5.5 cards 23.2% 76.8%

Who picks up more cards

Ath Madrid
38.6%
Level
20.1%
La Coruna
41.3%

Team cards lines

Ath Madrid

Over 1.5
58.8%
Over 2.5
32.5%

La Coruna

Over 1.5
60.7%
Over 2.5
34.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Ath Madrid's; La Coruna gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Ath Madrid line Ath Madrid La Coruna
-1.5 21.5% 78.5%
-0.5 38.6% 61.4%
+0.5 58.7% 41.3%
+1.5 76.4% 23.6%

Red card

Any red card26.5%
Ath Madrid red card11.2%
La Coruna red card17.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 68.6% 31.5%
22.5 fouls 54.6% 45.4%
24.5 fouls 40.6% 59.4%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 57.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.5% for over 2.5 to 23.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.7%. Between the two sides, La Coruna are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.3%, with a level count at 20.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Ath Madrid over 1.5 cards sits at 58.8% and La Coruna at 60.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 26.5% (Ath Madrid 11.2%, La Coruna 17.2%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

57.7%Over 3.5 cards
26.5%Any red card
41.3%Most cards: La Coruna
58.8%Ath Madrid over 1.5 cards
60.7%La Coruna over 1.5 cards
54.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 57.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 26.5%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianLa Coruna are the pick to collect more cards at 41.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 57.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Ath Madrid vs La Coruna?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 57.7% for Ath Madrid vs La Coruna.
Will there be a red card in Ath Madrid vs La Coruna?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 26.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ath Madrid vs La Coruna?
Before kickoff, the model rated La Coruna to pick up more cards at 41.3%, with a level count at 20.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

La LigaAtletico Madrid fixtures and statsDeportivo La Coruna fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.