AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Serie A
AtalantaAtalantaLLLWL
Full time4-4Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1014:00UK14°C · Cloudy
FrosinoneFrosinoneWDWLW

Atalanta 4-4 Frosinone cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined59.2%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined40.8%

Result

Atalanta4-4Frosinone
5 yellow cardsAtalanta 1, Frosinone 4
0 red cardsAtalanta 0, Frosinone 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 59.2% and it missed (5 in the match). We called No at 86.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards40.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Livio Marinelli

Recorded match referee.

Livio Marinelli in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 10 2
Goals 3.10 Not available
Yellow cards 3.80 Not available
Red cards 0.30 Not available
Corners 9.1 Not available
Fouls 25.8 Not available
Both teams scored 60% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 70% Not available
Home wins 50% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Atalanta vs Frosinone 4-4 8 Yes 5 0 17 20
22 Aug 2026 Inter vs Monza 4-1 5 Yes 4 0 6 19
26 Apr 2026 Fiorentina vs Sassuolo 0-0 0 No 3 0 11 25
7 Mar 2026 Cagliari vs Como 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 5 35
20 Feb 2026 Sassuolo vs Verona 3-0 3 No 5 1 11 26
11 Jan 2026 Lecce vs Parma 1-2 3 Yes 4 2 6 33
13 Dec 2025 Torino vs Cremonese 1-0 1 No 3 0 12 33
19 Oct 2025 Milan vs Fiorentina 2-1 3 Yes 6 0 4 26
21 Sep 2025 Inter vs Sassuolo 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 10 23
29 Aug 2025 Lecce vs Milan 0-2 2 No 1 0 9 18

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Atalanta vs Frosinone. It tips Atalanta for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 62.3% 37.8%
3.5 cards 40.8% 59.2%
4.5 cards 23.4% 76.6%
5.5 cards 11.9% 88.1%

Who picks up more cards

Atalanta
39.7%
Level
22.8%
Frosinone
37.6%

Team cards lines

Atalanta

Over 1.5
48.5%
Over 2.5
23.4%

Frosinone

Over 1.5
46.9%
Over 2.5
22.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Atalanta's; Frosinone gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Atalanta line Atalanta Frosinone
-1.5 20.6% 79.4%
-0.5 39.7% 60.3%
+0.5 62.5% 37.6%
+1.5 81.0% 19.0%

Red card

Any red card13.1%
Atalanta red card11.0%
Frosinone red card2.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 66.2% 33.8%
22.5 fouls 53.0% 47.0%
24.5 fouls 39.9% 60.1%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 40.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 62.3% for over 2.5 to 11.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 40.8%. Head to head on cards, Atalanta are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 22.8%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Atalanta over 1.5 cards sits at 48.5% and Frosinone at 46.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.1% (Atalanta 11.0%, Frosinone 2.3%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

40.8%Over 3.5 cards
13.1%Any red card
39.7%Most cards: Atalanta
48.5%Atalanta over 1.5 cards
46.9%Frosinone over 1.5 cards
53.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 40.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianAtalanta are the pick to collect more cards at 39.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 40.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
AtalantaAtalanta

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

FrosinoneFrosinone
Statistic
Atalanta
Frosinone
fouls per game
9.6
17.4

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 40.8% for Atalanta vs Frosinone.
Will there be a red card in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Before kickoff, the model rated Atalanta to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 22.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie AAtalanta fixtures and statsFrosinone fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.