AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Serie A
AtalantaAtalantaLLLWL
Full time4-4Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1014:00UK14°C · Cloudy
FrosinoneFrosinoneWDWLW

Atalanta 4-4 Frosinone expected goals (xg): our prediction vs the result

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Atalanta1.29

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Frosinone1.91

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Result

Atalanta4-4Frosinone
4.32 – 1.51 xGUnderstat

The match produced 4.32 xG for Atalanta and 1.51 xG for Frosinone, against a final score of 4-4. The scoreline and the chances told different stories.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atalanta have created 1.29 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Frosinone have created 1.91 xG and scored 2.17 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

AtalantaAtalanta

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

FrosinoneFrosinone
Statistic
Atalanta
Frosinone
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.29
1.91

xG conceded per game
2.22
2.29

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

AtalantaAtalantaLast 5
L
Loss · 1-2
L
Loss · 1-2
L
Loss · 0-2
W
Win · 3-1
L
Loss · 2-3

1 win · 0 draws · 4 losses

FrosinoneFrosinoneLast 5
W
Win · 3-2
D
Draw · 1-1
W
Win · 2-0
L
Loss · 0-3
W
Win · 4-2

3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3AtalantaAtalanta wins
1Draws
1FrosinoneFrosinone wins
3.4Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
AtalantaAtalanta
5 – 0
FrosinoneFrosinone
FrosinoneFrosinone
2 – 1
AtalantaAtalanta
FrosinoneFrosinone
0 – 5
AtalantaAtalanta
AtalantaAtalanta
4 – 0
FrosinoneFrosinone
FrosinoneFrosinone
0 – 0
AtalantaAtalanta

Match outlook

PickAtalanta59.3%
Draw23.8%
Frosinone16.9%

The model leans Atalanta to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

59.3%Favoured: Atalanta
52.5%Both Teams to Score
53.0%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

AtalantaAtalanta (1)
Gianluca Scamacca
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
29.8%
3.36
1+ shot on target
56.8%
1.76
2+ shots
61.1%
1.64
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.61
On target1.47
Goals0.62
FrosinoneFrosinone (1)
Antonio Raimondo
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
50.5%
1.98
1+ shot on target
63.1%
1.58
2+ shots
69.1%
1.45
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.65
On target1.52
Goals1.07

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie AAtalanta fixtures and statsFrosinone fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.