AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Segunda División
AlmeriaAlmeriaWWWWW
Full time2-2Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1020:00UK
OviedoOviedoLWLWW

Almeria 2-2 Oviedo cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined77.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined22.4%

Result

Almeria2-2Oviedo
7 yellow cardsAlmeria 2, Oviedo 5
0 red cardsAlmeria 0, Oviedo 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 77.6% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 80.3% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards77.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

German Cid Camacho

Recorded match referee.

German Cid Camacho in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 10 1
Goals 2.50 Not available
Yellow cards 6.90 Not available
Red cards 0.40 Not available
Corners 10.7 Not available
Fouls 26.4 Not available
Both teams scored 80% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 50% Not available
Home wins 40% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Almeria vs Oviedo 2-2 4 Yes 7 0 11 28
12 Jan 2026 Huesca vs Cordoba 1-2 3 Yes 10 1 12 22
21 Dec 2025 Granada vs Albacete 1-1 2 Yes 7 0 11 24
8 Dec 2025 Malaga vs Zaragoza 1-1 2 Yes 8 1 12 18
22 Nov 2025 Andorra vs Castellon 1-3 4 Yes 4 0 6 27
8 Nov 2025 Sociedad B vs Leganes 2-1 3 Yes 10 1 8 31
26 Oct 2025 Sp Gijon vs Zaragoza 1-0 1 No 2 1 18 30
12 Oct 2025 Cadiz vs Huesca 1-0 1 No 5 0 15 24
27 Sep 2025 Eibar vs La Coruna 1-1 2 Yes 9 0 8 26
12 Sep 2025 Las Palmas vs Sociedad B 2-1 3 Yes 7 0 6 34

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Almeria vs Oviedo. Slightly more cards are projected for Oviedo for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 90.0% 10.1%
3.5 cards 77.6% 22.4%
4.5 cards 61.3% 38.7%
5.5 cards 43.9% 56.1%

Who picks up more cards

Almeria
31.9%
Level
17.3%
Oviedo
50.9%

Team cards lines

Almeria

Over 1.5
68.6%
Over 2.5
42.3%

Oviedo

Over 1.5
79.2%
Over 2.5
56.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Almeria's; Oviedo gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Almeria line Almeria Oviedo
-1.5 17.9% 82.1%
-0.5 31.9% 68.2%
+0.5 49.1% 50.9%
+1.5 66.5% 33.6%

Red card

Any red card19.7%
Almeria red card13.1%
Oviedo red card7.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 87.0% 13.0%
22.5 fouls 77.8% 22.2%
24.5 fouls 66.1% 33.9%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 77.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 90.0% for over 2.5 to 43.9% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.9%. Head to head on cards, Oviedo are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.9%, with a level count at 17.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Almeria over 1.5 cards sits at 68.6% and Oviedo at 79.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.7% (Almeria 13.1%, Oviedo 7.6%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

77.6%Over 3.5 cards
19.7%Any red card
50.9%Most cards: Oviedo
68.6%Almeria over 1.5 cards
79.2%Oviedo over 1.5 cards
77.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 77.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 19.7%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianOviedo are the pick to collect more cards at 50.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 5.5 cards: over sits at 43.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Almeria vs Oviedo?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 77.6% for Almeria vs Oviedo.
Will there be a red card in Almeria vs Oviedo?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 19.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Almeria vs Oviedo?
Before kickoff, the model rated Oviedo to pick up more cards at 50.9%, with a level count at 17.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónAlmeria fixtures and statsOviedo fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.