AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Segunda División
AlmeriaAlmeriaWWWWW
Full time2-2Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1020:00UK
OviedoOviedoLWLWW

Almeria 2-2 Oviedo corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined52.5%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined47.5%

Result

Almeria2-2Oviedo
11 cornersAlmeria 4, Oviedo 7
Under 9.5

We called Under 9.5 at 52.5% and it missed (11 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners47.5%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Almeria.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 71.7% 28.3%
8.5 corners 59.8% 40.2%
9.5 corners 47.5% 52.5%
10.5 corners 35.8% 64.2%
11.5 corners 25.7% 74.3%
12.5 corners 17.5% 82.5%

Who wins the corner count

Almeria
57.8%
Level
10.6%
Oviedo
31.6%

Team corners lines

Almeria

Over 3.5
74.7%
Over 4.5
59.5%
Over 5.5
44.1%

Oviedo

Over 3.5
57.1%
Over 4.5
39.5%
Over 5.5
25.1%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Almeria's; Oviedo gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Almeria line Almeria Oviedo
-3.5 26.0% 74.0%
-1.5 46.6% 53.4%
-0.5 57.8% 42.3%
+0.5 68.4% 31.6%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 47.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.7% for over 7.5 to 17.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.5%. Head to head on corners, Almeria are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.8%, with a level count at 10.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

47.5%Over 9.5 corners
57.8%Most corners: Almeria
59.5%Almeria over 4.5 corners
39.5%Oviedo over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Split by side, Almeria over 4.5 corners sits at 59.5% and Oviedo at 39.5%.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 47.5% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderAlmeria are the pick to win the corner count at 57.8%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 47.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many corners in Almeria vs Oviedo?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 47.5% for Almeria vs Oviedo.
Which team will win the corner count in Almeria vs Oviedo?
Before kickoff, the model rated Almeria to win the corner count at 57.8%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Segunda DivisiónAlmeria fixtures and statsOviedo fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.