AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
AlavesAlavesLLDLL
Full time1-1Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1020:00UK
MalagaMalagaDLLDL

Alaves 1-1 Malaga cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined63.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined36.2%

Result

Alaves1-1Malaga
3 yellow cardsAlaves 2, Malaga 1
0 red cardsAlaves 0, Malaga 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 63.8% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 88.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards63.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Carlos Muniz Munoz

Recorded match referee.

Carlos Muniz Munoz in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 15 5
Goals 2.67 3.80
Yellow cards 3.80 3.60
Red cards 0.20 0.00
Corners 9.9 8.6
Fouls 25.4 26.0
Both teams scored 53% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 53% 60%
Home wins 33% 60%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Alaves vs Malaga 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 9 26
11 Oct 2026 Betis vs Osasuna 5-2 7 Yes 7 0 12 24
13 Sep 2026 Celta vs Malaga 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 6 20
28 Aug 2026 Santander vs Elche 3-2 5 Yes 3 0 15 36
16 Aug 2026 Espanol vs Levante 3-0 3 No 3 0 1 24
18 Jan 2026 Cordoba vs MalagaSegunda División 0-1 1 No 2 0 12 21
10 Jan 2026 Sociedad B vs AlbaceteSegunda División 0-0 0 No 5 0 10 32
19 Dec 2025 Eibar vs ValladolidSegunda División 3-0 3 No 7 0 7 32
7 Dec 2025 Granada vs CeutaSegunda División 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 7 22
23 Nov 2025 Cadiz vs Cultural LeonesaSegunda División 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 17 23

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Alaves vs Malaga. Slightly more cards are projected for Malaga for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 81.0% 19.0%
3.5 cards 63.8% 36.2%
4.5 cards 45.2% 54.8%
5.5 cards 28.8% 71.2%

Who picks up more cards

Alaves
37.3%
Level
19.1%
Malaga
43.6%

Team cards lines

Alaves

Over 1.5
61.9%
Over 2.5
35.7%

Malaga

Over 1.5
66.0%
Over 2.5
40.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Alaves's; Malaga gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Alaves line Alaves Malaga
-1.5 21.1% 78.9%
-0.5 37.3% 62.7%
+0.5 56.4% 43.6%
+1.5 73.9% 26.1%

Red card

Any red card11.1%
Alaves red card5.5%
Malaga red card5.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 81.3% 18.7%
22.5 fouls 70.1% 29.9%
24.5 fouls 57.2% 42.9%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 63.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 81.0% for over 2.5 to 28.8% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.2%. Head to head on cards, Malaga are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 19.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Alaves over 1.5 cards sits at 61.9% and Malaga at 66.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.1% (Alaves 5.5%, Malaga 5.9%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

63.8%Over 3.5 cards
11.1%Any red card
43.6%Most cards: Malaga
61.9%Alaves over 1.5 cards
66.0%Malaga over 1.5 cards
70.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 63.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.1%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianMalaga are the pick to collect more cards at 43.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 45.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Alaves vs Malaga?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 63.8% for Alaves vs Malaga.
Will there be a red card in Alaves vs Malaga?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Alaves vs Malaga?
Before kickoff, the model rated Malaga to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 19.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More La Liga, Cards

Villarreal vs Espanyol cards predictionLevante vs Atletico Madrid cards predictionRayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo cards predictionReal Betis vs Malaga cards predictionBarcelona vs Alaves cards predictionGetafe vs Sevilla cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

La LigaAlaves fixtures and statsMalaga fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.