Alaves 1-1 Malaga shots: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Alaves1-1Malaga
| This match | Alaves | Malaga | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 18 | 7 | 25 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 1st-half shots | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 2nd-half shots | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| 1st-half on target | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2nd-half on target | 4 | 2 | 6 |
We called Over 24.5 at 51.4% and it landed (25 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 62.6% and it missed (7 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 24.5 shots51.4%
Shots prediction
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Alaves.
Total shots
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Who takes more shots
AlavesMalagaTeam shots lines
Alaves
Malaga
Shots on target
Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 74.7% | 25.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 37.5% | 62.5% |
Who has more on target
AlavesMalagaTeam shots on target lines
Alaves
Malaga
Shot handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Alaves's; Malaga gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Alaves line | Alaves | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| -2.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| -0.5 | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| +0.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
Player shots
Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.
| Alaves | 2+ shots | 1+ on target | Shots /90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariano | 26.4% | 46.9% | 2.69 |
| Antonio Martínez | 61.4% | 51.5% | 3.21 |
| Lucas Boyé | 66.1% | 55.4% | 2.89 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach | 28.9% | 33.3% | 1.69 |
| Ángel Pérez | 29.6% | 31.6% | 1.26 |
| Malaga | 2+ shots | 1+ on target | Shots /90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chupe | 67.6% | 48.5% | 2.56 |
| David Larrubia | 49.6% | 35.8% | 1.84 |
| Juan Cruz | 18.3% | 27.8% | 1.12 |
| Carlos Dotor | 9.1% | 31.3% | 0.63 |
| Pablo Martínez | 29.8% | 18.7% | 1.42 |
Shots stats
Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.
At home and away: Alaves in their home matches and Malaga in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.
By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.
By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only Alaves's home matches and Malaga's away matches.
Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.
Recorded 2026/27
Alaves at home, Malaga away
Not enough home and away matches with shot data this season yet.
By half, this season
By half, at home and away
Last six league matches
League average per match: 11.7 in the 1st half, 15.2 in the 2nd half.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 13,109 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 57.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 51.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 64.0% for over 22.5 to 28.0% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.4%. Between the two sides, Alaves are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.6%, with a level count at 5.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Alaves over 12.5 shots sits at 58.2% and Malaga at 35.7%. Alaves take 4.6 shots before half-time and 7.9 after, Malaga 4.7 and 6.8.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Alaves vs Malaga?
Which team will have more shots in Alaves vs Malaga?
Do Alaves shoot more in the first or second half?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
