AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

La Liga
VillarrealVillarrealWWLDW
Fri, 30 Oct 202630/1020:00UK18°C · Cloudy
EspanolEspanolLLDLL

Villarreal vs Espanyol cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined68.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined31.5%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards68.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Villarreal vs Espanol. The model leans toward Espanol for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 84.2% 15.9%
3.5 cards 68.5% 31.5%
4.5 cards 50.5% 49.5%
5.5 cards 33.6% 66.4%

Who picks up more cards

Villarreal
32.6%
Level
18.2%
Espanol
49.2%

Team cards lines

Villarreal

Over 1.5
61.8%
Over 2.5
35.4%

Espanol

Over 1.5
72.3%
Over 2.5
47.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Villarreal's; Espanol gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Villarreal line Villarreal Espanol
-1.5 18.0% 82.0%
-0.5 32.6% 67.4%
+0.5 50.8% 49.2%
+1.5 68.6% 31.4%

Red card

Any red card18.2%
Villarreal red card7.5%
Espanol red card11.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 77.8% 22.2%
22.5 fouls 65.7% 34.3%
24.5 fouls 52.2% 47.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Villarreal Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos 2 6.0 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

VillarrealVillarreal

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Villarreal at home and Espanol away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

EspanolEspanol
Statistic
Villarreal
Espanol
Yellow cards per game
1.9
3.1

First-half yellow cards per game
0.1
1.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.7
2.0

Matches with more cards than the opponent
16.7%
·

Matches with card data
6
5
Red cards this season
1
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 68.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 84.2% for over 2.5 to 33.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.5%. On the card count, Espanol are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.2%, with a level count at 18.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Villarreal over 1.5 cards sits at 61.8% and Espanol at 72.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.2% (Villarreal 7.5%, Espanol 11.5%). Villarreal’s most frequent referee this season, Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, has averaged 6.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

68.5%Over 3.5 cards
18.2%Any red card
49.2%Most cards: Espanol
61.8%Villarreal over 1.5 cards
72.3%Espanol over 1.5 cards
65.7%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 68.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Villarreal’s most frequent referee this season, averages 6.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.2%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianEspanol are the pick to collect more cards at 49.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
VillarrealVillarreal

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

EspanolEspanol
Statistic
Villarreal
Espanol
cards per game
2.5
·

fouls per game
10.9
16.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Villarreal vs Espanol?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 68.5% for Villarreal vs Espanol.
Will there be a red card in Villarreal vs Espanol?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Villarreal vs Espanol?
The model rates Espanol to pick up more cards at 49.2%, with a level count at 18.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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La LigaVillarreal fixtures and statsEspanyol fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.