AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

League Two
AccringtonAccringtonWDWDW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK
NorthamptonNorthamptonLDWLW

Accrington vs Northampton corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined51.2%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined48.8%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners51.2%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Accrington.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 74.2% 25.8%
8.5 corners 63.1% 37.0%
9.5 corners 51.2% 48.8%
10.5 corners 39.8% 60.2%
11.5 corners 29.5% 70.5%
12.5 corners 20.9% 79.1%

Who wins the corner count

Accrington
50.2%
Level
10.8%
Northampton
39.0%

Team corners lines

Accrington

Over 3.5
71.9%
Over 4.5
56.5%
Over 5.5
41.3%

Northampton

Over 3.5
64.8%
Over 4.5
48.1%
Over 5.5
33.0%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Accrington's; Northampton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Accrington line Accrington Northampton
-1.5 39.4% 60.6%
-0.5 50.2% 49.8%
+0.5 61.0% 39.0%
+1.5 71.0% 29.0%
AccringtonAccrington

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Accrington at home and Northampton away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NorthamptonNorthampton
Statistic
Accrington
Northampton
Corners won per game at this venue
5.8
5.2

Corners conceded per game at this venue
4.0
4.6

First-half corners won per game
2.3
3.1

Second-half corners won per game
3.2
2.6

Matches with more corners than the opponent
38.5%
54.5%

Matches with corner data
13
11

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 51.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.2% for over 7.5 to 20.9% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. Between the two sides, Accrington are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 50.2%, with a level count at 10.8%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Accrington over 4.5 corners sits at 56.5% and Northampton at 48.1%. This season Accrington have averaged 5.3 corners won a game and Northampton 5.7.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

51.2%Over 9.5 corners
50.2%Most corners: Accrington
56.5%Accrington over 4.5 corners
48.1%Northampton over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.2% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderAccrington are the pick to win the corner count at 50.2%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 51.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
AccringtonAccrington

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NorthamptonNorthampton
Statistic
Accrington
Northampton
corners won per game
5.3
5.7

corners conceded per game
4.7
3.9

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Accrington vs Northampton?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.2% for Accrington vs Northampton.
Which team will win the corner count in Accrington vs Northampton?
The model rates Accrington to win the corner count at 50.2%, with a level count at 10.8%.
How many corners do Accrington and Northampton average this season?
Accrington have won 5.3 corners a game this season and Northampton 5.7.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

League TwoAccrington fixtures and statsNorthampton fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.