MoreirenseMoreirenseLWDLW
EstrelaEstrelaWDLLLMoreirense vs Estrela correct score prediction
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Model read
No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.
Conviction: Open
Most likely · 13.2%1-1
Correct score
Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.
Rows = Moreirense goals, columns = Estrela goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%.
The grid is the model's full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Most likely scorelines
- 1-113.2%
- 1-011.6%
- 0-09.2%
- 2-19.0%
- 2-08.8%
- 0-18.2%
- 1-26.4%
- 2-24.6%
Score probability grid
| H / A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.8% | 9% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Estrela
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
L
W
D
L
W
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
W
D
L
L
L
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.2% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Moreirense have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, Estrela 1.0 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 44.5% for over 2.5 and 71.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
Looking at totals, the model sees 44.5% for three or more goals and 71.0% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Moreirense favoured at 45.8%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Moreirense vs Estrela?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Primeira Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
