Famalicao vs Alverca: model prediction
Primeira Liga
FamalicaoLLDDD
AlvercaDLDLW
Famalicao or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Win probability · fair 1.99
Top signals
Model read
A measured edge to Famalicao: 50% is the model's line for this Primeira Liga meeting on 12 October 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 42% with both teams to score at 46%. 2) Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 1 wins for Famalicao, 0 draws and 1 for Alverca, averaging 1.0 goals a game. 3) Form guide over the last six: Famalicao W0 D4 L2, Alverca W1 D2 L3. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
50.2%
27.6%
22.2%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Famalicao 1 · 0 draws · Alverca 1 · 1.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
FamalicaoAlverca37.5%57.1%
62.5%71.4%
25.0%14.3%
League averages this season: 2.86 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 52%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 53.5% | Over 24.5 | 41.3% | Over 26.5 | 30.2% | Over 28.5 | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Famalicao | 61.7% | Most: Alverca | 32.4% | ||||
| Famalicao Over 13.2 | 42.4% | Alverca Over 13.2 | 22.8% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 67.9% | Over 7.5 | 54.9% | Over 8.5 | 42.0% | Over 9.5 | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Famalicao | 52.8% | Most: Alverca | 34.1% | ||||
| Famalicao Over 4.2 | 44.5% | Alverca Over 4.2 | 31.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 84.1% | Over 3.5 | 67.9% | Over 4.5 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Famalicao | 35.0% | Most: Alverca | 46.0% | ||
| Famalicao Over 1.8 | 63.6% | Alverca Over 1.8 | 70.6% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Famalicao clean sheet | 40.7% |
|---|---|
| Alverca clean sheet | 22.8% |
| Famalicao win to nil | 30.8% |
| Alverca win to nil | 12.9% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 50.2% | draw | 27.6% | away | 22.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 77.8% | 12 | 72.4% | X2 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 69.4% | away | 30.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 46.3% | no | 53.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 40.9% | away | 22.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 30.9% | away | 12.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.5% | home_by_2 | 15.5% | home_by_3plus | 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.6% | away_by_2 | 5.7% | away_by_3plus | 1.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.9% | 0-1 | 7.7% | 0-2 | 3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.1% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 13.2% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 5.5% |
| 1-3 | 1.7% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.2% | 2-1 | 9.1% | 2-2 | 4.1% |
| 2-3 | 1.2% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 5.0% | 3-1 | 4.5% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.9% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.1% | under_0.5 | 9.9% | over_1.5 | 69.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 30.8% | over_2.5 | 42.4% | under_2.5 | 57.6% |
| over_3.5 | 21.6% | under_3.5 | 78.4% | over_4.5 | 9.3% |
| under_4.5 | 90.7% | over_5.5 | 3.4% | under_5.5 | 96.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.2% | under_0.5 | 22.8% | over_1.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.5% | over_2.5 | 18.6% | under_2.5 | 81.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 59.1% | under_0.5 | 40.9% | over_1.5 | 22.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.4% | over_2.5 | 6.2% | under_2.5 | 93.8% |
most
| home | 50.2% | draw | 27.6% | away | 22.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 10.2% | away_+2.5 | 89.8% | home_-1.5 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 74.3% | home_-0.5 | 50.2% | away_+0.5 | 49.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 77.8% | away_-0.5 | 22.2% | home_+1.5 | 92.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.6% | home_+2.5 | 98.1% | away_-2.5 | 1.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.9% | exact_1 | 20.9% | exact_2 | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.8% | exact_4 | 12.3% | exact_5 | 5.9% |
| exact_6 | 2.3% | exact_7plus | 1.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 29.4% | draw | 50.6% | away | 20.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 57.3% | under_0.5 | 42.7% | over_1.5 | 21.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 79.0% | over_2.5 | 5.5% | under_2.5 | 94.5% |
btts
| yes | 11.7% | no | 88.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 42.7% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 15.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 4.4% | exact_4plus | 1.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 47.2% | draw | 34.9% | away | 18.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.7% | under_0.5 | 22.3% | over_1.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.7% | over_2.5 | 19.2% | under_2.5 | 80.8% |
btts
| yes | 24.9% | no | 75.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 25.0% | H/D | 3.4% | H/A | 0.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 23.9% | D/D | 17.7% | D/A | 9.1% |
| A/H | 3.3% | A/D | 5.2% | A/A | 11.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.7% | under_7.5 | 30.3% | over_8.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.5% | over_9.5 | 47.1% | under_9.5 | 52.9% |
| over_10.5 | 36.4% | under_10.5 | 63.6% | over_11.5 | 27.0% |
| under_11.5 | 73.0% | over_12.5 | 19.3% | under_12.5 | 80.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.9% | under_3.5 | 30.1% | over_4.5 | 55.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.7% | over_5.5 | 41.2% | under_5.5 | 58.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.2% | under_3.5 | 41.8% | over_4.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.9% | over_5.5 | 28.6% | under_5.5 | 71.4% |
most
| home | 53.5% | draw | 10.1% | away | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.9% | away_+3.5 | 75.1% | home_-1.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.8% | home_-0.5 | 53.5% | away_+0.5 | 46.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.6% | away_-0.5 | 36.4% | home_+1.5 | 72.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.2% | home_+3.5 | 86.9% | away_-3.5 | 13.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 53.5% | under_22.5 | 46.5% | over_24.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 58.7% | over_26.5 | 30.2% | under_26.5 | 69.8% |
| over_28.5 | 20.9% | under_28.5 | 79.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 66.8% | under_10.5 | 33.2% | over_12.5 | 50.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 49.6% | over_14.5 | 35.0% | under_14.5 | 65.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 46.3% | under_10.5 | 53.7% | over_12.5 | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.5% | over_14.5 | 17.1% | under_14.5 | 82.9% |
most
| home | 61.7% | draw | 5.9% | away | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.9% | away_+4.5 | 63.1% | home_-2.5 | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.8% | home_-0.5 | 61.7% | away_+0.5 | 38.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.6% | away_-0.5 | 32.4% | home_+2.5 | 78.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.0% | home_+4.5 | 86.2% | away_-4.5 | 13.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 67.9% | under_6.5 | 32.1% | over_7.5 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.1% | over_8.5 | 41.9% | under_8.5 | 58.1% |
| over_9.5 | 30.3% | under_9.5 | 69.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 62.3% | under_3.5 | 37.7% | over_4.5 | 44.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.5% | over_5.5 | 29.0% | under_5.5 | 71.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.2% | under_3.5 | 50.8% | over_4.5 | 31.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.8% | over_5.5 | 17.9% | under_5.5 | 82.1% |
most
| home | 52.8% | draw | 13.1% | away | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.5% | away_+2.5 | 72.5% | home_-0.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.2% | home_+0.5 | 65.9% | away_-0.5 | 34.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.0% | away_-2.5 | 14.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 84.1% | under_2.5 | 15.9% | over_3.5 | 68.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 32.1% | over_4.5 | 49.3% | under_4.5 | 50.7% |
| over_5.5 | 32.0% | under_5.5 | 68.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 63.6% | under_1.5 | 36.4% | over_2.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 70.6% | under_1.5 | 29.4% | over_2.5 | 44.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 55.2% |
most
| home | 35.1% | draw | 18.9% | away | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.4% | away_+1.5 | 80.6% | home_-0.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.0% | home_+0.5 | 54.0% | away_-0.5 | 46.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.9% | away_-1.5 | 28.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.5% | under_20.5 | 13.5% | over_22.5 | 77.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 22.3% | over_24.5 | 66.6% | under_24.5 | 33.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 81.7% | under_9.5 | 18.3% | over_11.5 | 66.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 33.9% | over_13.5 | 48.4% | under_13.5 | 51.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 83.1% | under_9.5 | 16.9% | over_11.5 | 68.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 31.9% | over_13.5 | 50.7% | under_13.5 | 49.3% |
most
| home | 45.2% | draw | 6.3% | away | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.6% | away_+3.5 | 72.4% | home_-0.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.8% | home_+2.5 | 63.9% | away_-2.5 | 36.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.0% | no | 86.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.6% | no | 94.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.9% | no | 91.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Famalicao predictions · Alverca predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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