Casa Pia vs Santa Clara: model prediction
Primeira Liga
Casa PiaLLDLW
Santa ClaraWDWWD
Draw or Santa Clara
Under 2.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Win probability · fair 2.08
Top signals
Model read
A measured edge to Santa Clara: 48% is the model's line for this Primeira Liga meeting on 10 October 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 36% with both teams to score at 41%. 2) The run in: Casa Pia arrive W1 D1 L4, Santa Clara W4 D2 L0. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Casa Pia, 1 draws and 3 for Santa Clara at 1.8 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
22.4%
29.7%
48.0%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Casa Pia 1 · 1 draws · Santa Clara 3 · 1.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Casa PiaSanta Clara42.9%42.9%
28.6%42.9%
14.3%57.1%
League averages this season: 2.82 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 54%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 51.9% | Over 24.5 | 39.7% | Over 26.5 | 28.8% | Over 28.5 | 19.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Casa Pia | 50.9% | Most: Santa Clara | 42.8% | ||||
| Casa Pia Over 13.2 | 34.0% | Santa Clara Over 13.2 | 28.7% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 60.3% | Over 7.5 | 46.6% | Over 8.5 | 33.8% | Over 9.5 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Casa Pia | 40.4% | Most: Santa Clara | 45.6% | ||||
| Casa Pia Over 4.2 | 30.5% | Santa Clara Over 4.2 | 34.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 86.7% | Over 3.5 | 72.2% | Over 4.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Casa Pia | 38.6% | Most: Santa Clara | 42.9% | ||
| Casa Pia Over 1.8 | 69.0% | Santa Clara Over 1.8 | 71.6% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Casa Pia clean sheet | 26.7% |
|---|---|
| Santa Clara clean sheet | 44.3% |
| Casa Pia win to nil | 14.2% |
| Santa Clara win to nil | 31.8% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 22.4% | draw | 29.7% | away | 48.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 52.1% | 12 | 70.4% | X2 | 77.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 31.8% | away | 68.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 41.3% | no | 58.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 26.7% | away | 44.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 14.2% | away | 31.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 15.2% | home_by_2 | 5.5% | home_by_3plus | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 25.0% | away_by_2 | 14.6% | away_by_3plus | 8.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 12.5% | 0-1 | 15.0% | 0-2 | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.6% | 0-4 | 1.5% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | 1-1 | 13.3% | 1-2 | 8.4% |
| 1-3 | 3.7% | 1-4 | 1.2% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 3.9% | 2-1 | 5.2% | 2-2 | 3.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 1.1% | 3-1 | 1.4% | 3-2 | 0.9% |
| 3-3 | 0.4% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 0.2% | 4-1 | 0.3% | 4-2 | 0.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.0% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.0% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 0.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 15.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 87.5% | under_0.5 | 12.5% | over_1.5 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 36.5% | over_2.5 | 35.9% | under_2.5 | 64.1% |
| over_3.5 | 16.8% | under_3.5 | 83.3% | over_4.5 | 6.5% |
| under_4.5 | 93.5% | over_5.5 | 2.2% | under_5.5 | 97.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.0% | even | 52.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 55.6% | under_0.5 | 44.4% | over_1.5 | 19.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 80.4% | over_2.5 | 4.9% | under_2.5 | 95.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 73.3% | under_0.5 | 26.7% | over_1.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.0% | over_2.5 | 14.8% | under_2.5 | 85.2% |
most
| home | 22.4% | draw | 29.7% | away | 48.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 1.7% | away_+2.5 | 98.3% | home_-1.5 | 7.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 92.8% | home_-0.5 | 22.4% | away_+0.5 | 77.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 52.0% | away_-0.5 | 48.0% | home_+1.5 | 77.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.9% | home_+2.5 | 91.6% | away_-2.5 | 8.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 12.5% | exact_1 | 24.0% | exact_2 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 19.2% | exact_4 | 10.2% | exact_5 | 4.4% |
| exact_6 | 1.6% | exact_7plus | 0.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 19.5% | draw | 45.3% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.3% | under_0.5 | 35.7% | over_1.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.5% | over_2.5 | 8.6% | under_2.5 | 91.4% |
btts
| yes | 15.3% | no | 84.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 35.7% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.5% | exact_4plus | 2.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 17.7% | draw | 43.1% | away | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 66.7% | under_0.5 | 33.3% | over_1.5 | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.9% | over_2.5 | 10.0% | under_2.5 | 90.0% |
btts
| yes | 16.3% | no | 83.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 12.8% | H/D | 4.7% | H/A | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 8.0% | D/D | 19.5% | D/A | 17.8% |
| A/H | 0.8% | A/D | 4.0% | A/A | 30.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 67.2% | under_7.5 | 32.8% | over_8.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 44.2% | over_9.5 | 44.4% | under_9.5 | 55.6% |
| over_10.5 | 33.9% | under_10.5 | 66.1% | over_11.5 | 24.9% |
| under_11.5 | 75.1% | over_12.5 | 17.5% | under_12.5 | 82.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.8% | under_3.5 | 34.2% | over_4.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.4% | over_5.5 | 36.6% | under_5.5 | 63.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.4% | under_3.5 | 40.6% | over_4.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.5% | over_5.5 | 29.9% | under_5.5 | 70.1% |
most
| home | 49.4% | draw | 10.4% | away | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.4% | away_+3.5 | 78.6% | home_-1.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 60.9% | home_-0.5 | 49.4% | away_+0.5 | 50.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 59.8% | away_-0.5 | 40.2% | home_+1.5 | 69.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 30.5% | home_+3.5 | 84.8% | away_-3.5 | 15.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 51.9% | under_22.5 | 48.1% | over_24.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 60.3% | over_26.5 | 28.8% | under_26.5 | 71.2% |
| over_28.5 | 19.8% | under_28.5 | 80.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 58.9% | under_10.5 | 41.1% | over_12.5 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 58.2% | over_14.5 | 27.1% | under_14.5 | 72.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 53.2% | under_10.5 | 46.8% | over_12.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 63.9% | over_14.5 | 22.3% | under_14.5 | 77.7% |
most
| home | 50.9% | draw | 6.3% | away | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 27.1% | away_+4.5 | 72.9% | home_-2.5 | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 61.6% | home_-0.5 | 50.9% | away_+0.5 | 49.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 57.2% | away_-0.5 | 42.8% | home_+2.5 | 69.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 30.9% | home_+4.5 | 79.3% | away_-4.5 | 20.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 60.3% | under_6.5 | 39.7% | over_7.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 53.4% | over_8.5 | 33.9% | under_8.5 | 66.1% |
| over_9.5 | 23.2% | under_9.5 | 76.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 48.3% | under_3.5 | 51.7% | over_4.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.5% | over_5.5 | 17.4% | under_5.5 | 82.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 52.0% | under_3.5 | 48.0% | over_4.5 | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.0% | over_5.5 | 20.1% | under_5.5 | 79.9% |
most
| home | 40.4% | draw | 14.0% | away | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 17.3% | away_+2.5 | 82.7% | home_-0.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.6% | home_+0.5 | 54.4% | away_-0.5 | 45.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 79.1% | away_-2.5 | 20.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 86.7% | under_2.5 | 13.3% | over_3.5 | 72.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 27.8% | over_4.5 | 54.3% | under_4.5 | 45.7% |
| over_5.5 | 36.8% | under_5.5 | 63.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 69.0% | under_1.5 | 31.0% | over_2.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 71.6% | under_1.5 | 28.4% | over_2.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.0% |
most
| home | 38.6% | draw | 18.5% | away | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 22.5% | away_+1.5 | 77.5% | home_-0.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.4% | home_+0.5 | 57.1% | away_-0.5 | 42.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.0% | away_-1.5 | 26.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 87.4% | under_20.5 | 12.6% | over_22.5 | 79.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 21.0% | over_24.5 | 68.4% | under_24.5 | 31.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 84.4% | under_9.5 | 15.6% | over_11.5 | 70.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 29.8% | over_13.5 | 53.3% | under_13.5 | 46.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 81.7% | under_9.5 | 18.3% | over_11.5 | 66.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 33.8% | over_13.5 | 48.7% | under_13.5 | 51.3% |
most
| home | 50.1% | draw | 6.2% | away | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 32.0% | away_+3.5 | 68.0% | home_-0.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.9% | home_+2.5 | 68.2% | away_-2.5 | 31.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.9% | no | 85.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 10.3% | no | 89.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.1% | no | 94.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).
More: Casa Pia predictions · Santa Clara predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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