AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
YorkYorkDWLWD
Full time1-1Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1019:45UK
AccringtonAccringtonLDDWD

York 1-1 Accrington cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.5%

Result

York1-1Accrington
5 yellow cardsYork 2, Accrington 3
0 red cardsYork 0, Accrington 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 51.5% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 75.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Declan Brown

Recorded match referee.

Declan Brown in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 9 3
Goals 2.22 Not available
Yellow cards 3.78 Not available
Red cards 0.33 Not available
Corners 10.4 Not available
Fouls 20.8 Not available
Both teams scored 67% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 33% Not available
Home wins 22% Not available
Latest 9 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 York vs Accrington 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 13 24
10 Oct 2026 Shrewsbury vs Exeter 0-1 1 No 6 0 10 26
22 Aug 2026 Port Vale vs Tranmere 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 7 36
18 Apr 2026 Swindon vs Accrington 2-2 4 Yes 1 0 11 13
28 Feb 2026 Notts County vs Grimsby 0-1 1 No 6 1 13 24
17 Feb 2026 Cambridge vs Colchester 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 8 20
24 Jan 2026 Newport County vs Chesterfield 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 10 15
29 Dec 2025 Accrington vs Harrogate 1-0 1 No 1 1 11 19
25 Oct 2025 Barrow vs Barnet 2-2 4 Yes 3 1 11 10

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for York vs Accrington. It tips Accrington for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.2% 27.8%
3.5 cards 51.5% 48.5%
4.5 cards 32.1% 67.9%
5.5 cards 17.6% 82.4%

Who picks up more cards

York
27.6%
Level
20.5%
Accrington
51.9%

Team cards lines

York

Over 1.5
46.3%
Over 2.5
20.7%

Accrington

Over 1.5
64.1%
Over 2.5
37.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is York's; Accrington gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

York line York Accrington
-1.5 12.8% 87.2%
-0.5 27.6% 72.4%
+0.5 48.1% 51.9%
+1.5 68.8% 31.2%

Red card

Any red card24.6%
York red card3.1%
Accrington red card22.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 65.4% 34.6%
22.5 fouls 49.9% 50.1%
24.5 fouls 34.8% 65.2%
YorkYork

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means York at home and Accrington away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

AccringtonAccrington
Statistic
York
Accrington
Cards per game at this venue
1.6
3.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.0
2.2

Yellow cards per game
1.3
2.8

Matches with card data
9
10
Red cards this season
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 51.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.2% for over 2.5 to 17.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.5%. On the card count, Accrington are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.9%, with a level count at 20.5%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, York over 1.5 cards sits at 46.3% and Accrington at 64.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.6% (York 3.1%, Accrington 22.2%). This season York have averaged 1.3 cards a game and Accrington 2.9.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

51.5%Over 3.5 cards
24.6%Any red card
51.9%Most cards: Accrington
46.3%York over 1.5 cards
64.1%Accrington over 1.5 cards
49.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 24.6%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianAccrington are the pick to collect more cards at 51.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 51.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
YorkYork

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

AccringtonAccrington
Statistic
York
Accrington
cards per game
1.3
2.9

fouls per game
8.3
15.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in York vs Accrington?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 51.5% for York vs Accrington.
Will there be a red card in York vs Accrington?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 24.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in York vs Accrington?
Before kickoff, the model rated Accrington to pick up more cards at 51.9%, with a level count at 20.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More League Two, Cards

Barnet vs York predictionNewport County vs Chesterfield cards predictionGrimsby vs York cards predictionPort Vale vs Rochdale cards predictionAccrington vs Northampton cards predictionColchester vs Walsall cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

League TwoYork fixtures and statsAccrington fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.