AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 5 Nov 2026

Championship
WrexhamWrexhamLWLLW
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1112:30UK
WolvesWolvesWDWWW

Wrexham vs Wolves cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Wrexham vs Wolves. It tips Wolves for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.6% 27.4%
3.5 cards 52.0% 48.0%
4.5 cards 32.6% 67.4%
5.5 cards 18.0% 82.0%

Who picks up more cards

Wrexham
31.3%
Level
21.0%
Wolves
47.7%

Team cards lines

Wrexham

Over 1.5
49.9%
Over 2.5
23.7%

Wolves

Over 1.5
61.8%
Over 2.5
34.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Wrexham's; Wolves gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Wrexham line Wrexham Wolves
-1.5 15.3% 84.7%
-0.5 31.3% 68.7%
+0.5 52.3% 47.7%
+1.5 72.3% 27.7%

Red card

Any red card1.3%
Wrexham red card0.4%
Wolves red card0.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 57.2% 42.8%
22.5 fouls 41.4% 58.6%
24.5 fouls 27.4% 72.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Wrexham M Donohue 2 3.0 1.0
Wolves F Hallam 2 5.0 2.0
Wolves J Smith 2 4.5 2.5
Wolves L Smith 2 3.0 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

WrexhamWrexham

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Wrexham at home and Wolves away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

WolvesWolves
Statistic
Wrexham
Wolves
Yellow cards per game
1.3
1.9

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.7
1.2

Matches with card data
3
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.1%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0224Calibration error
54,319Matches graded

In 12,188 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 5 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 54.7%✓ 58.7%✗ 50.2%✓ 53.8%✗ 54.8%✗ 53.5%✗ 53.4%✗ 51.8%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.3%
4 of 10 recent calls hit.
Cardiff vs West Ham2026-11-04Over 3.5 54.7%Miss
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough2026-11-04Under 3.5 58.7%Hit
Bristol City vs Wolves2026-11-04Over 3.5 50.2%Miss
Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen2026-11-04Over 3.5 53.8%Hit
Blackburn vs Stoke2026-11-03Under 3.5 54.8%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.6% for over 2.5 to 18.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.0%. Head to head on cards, Wolves are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 21.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Wrexham over 1.5 cards sits at 49.9% and Wolves at 61.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 1.3% (Wrexham 0.4%, Wolves 0.8%). Wrexham’s most frequent referee this season, M Donohue, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

52.0%Over 3.5 cards
1.3%Any red card
47.7%Most cards: Wolves
49.9%Wrexham over 1.5 cards
61.8%Wolves over 1.5 cards
41.4%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherM Donohue, Wrexham’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 1.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianWolves are the pick to collect more cards at 47.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
WrexhamWrexham

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

WolvesWolves
Statistic
Wrexham
Wolves
fouls per game
11.1
12.5

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Wrexham vs Wolves?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.0% for Wrexham vs Wolves.
Will there be a red card in Wrexham vs Wolves?
The model rates a red card for either side at 1.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Wrexham vs Wolves?
The model rates Wolves to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipWrexham fixtures and statsWolves fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.