AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Eredivisie
Willem IIWillem IILLLLL
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1119:00UK
ZwolleZwolleLLLWD

Willem II vs PEC Zwolle cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined70%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined30%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards30.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Willem II vs Zwolle. The model leans toward Zwolle for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 52.1% 47.9%
3.5 cards 30.0% 70.0%
4.5 cards 14.7% 85.3%
5.5 cards 6.3% 93.8%

Who picks up more cards

Willem II
30.4%
Level
25.1%
Zwolle
44.5%

Team cards lines

Willem II

Over 1.5
34.6%
Over 2.5
12.7%

Zwolle

Over 1.5
45.4%
Over 2.5
20.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Willem II's; Zwolle gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Willem II line Willem II Zwolle
-1.5 12.7% 87.3%
-0.5 30.4% 69.6%
+0.5 55.5% 44.5%
+1.5 77.6% 22.4%

Red card

Any red card5.5%
Willem II red card2.1%
Zwolle red card3.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 55.1% 44.9%
22.5 fouls 39.7% 60.3%
24.5 fouls 26.2% 73.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Willem II Jannick van der Laan 2 1.0 0.0
Willem II Robin Hensgens 2 3.0 1.5
Willem II S. Gozubuyuk 2 4.5 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Willem IIWillem II

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Willem II at home and Zwolle away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ZwolleZwolle
Statistic
Willem II
Zwolle
Cards per game at this venue
·
1.5

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
0.3

Yellow cards per game
1.5
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.2

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.7
1.1

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
44.4%

Matches with card data
3
9
Red cards this season
·
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 1,676 matches we rated like this one (20–30%), Cards actually happened 36.9% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 30.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 52.1% for over 2.5 to 6.3% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.1%. Head to head on cards, Zwolle are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.5%, with a level count at 25.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Willem II over 1.5 cards sits at 34.6% and Zwolle at 45.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.5% (Willem II 2.1%, Zwolle 3.5%). Willem II’s most frequent referee this season, Jannick van der Laan, has averaged 1.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

30.0%Over 3.5 cards
5.5%Any red card
44.5%Most cards: Zwolle
34.6%Willem II over 1.5 cards
45.4%Zwolle over 1.5 cards
39.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 30.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJannick van der Laan, Willem II’s most frequent referee this season, averages 1.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 5.5%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianZwolle are the pick to collect more cards at 44.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
Willem IIWillem II

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ZwolleZwolle
Statistic
Willem II
Zwolle
cards per game
·
1.4

fouls per game
9.8
11.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Willem II vs Zwolle?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 30.0% for Willem II vs Zwolle.
Will there be a red card in Willem II vs Zwolle?
The model rates a red card for either side at 5.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Willem II vs Zwolle?
The model rates Zwolle to pick up more cards at 44.5%, with a level count at 25.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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EredivisieWillem II fixtures and statsPEC Zwolle fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.