AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Eredivisie
ExcelsiorExcelsiorDLLLL
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1120:00UK
Go Ahead EaglesEaglesDDLWL

Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined74.6%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined25.5%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards25.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles. The model leans toward Go Ahead Eagles for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 47.0% 53.0%
3.5 cards 25.5% 74.6%
4.5 cards 11.7% 88.3%
5.5 cards 4.6% 95.4%

Who picks up more cards

Excelsior
28.1%
Level
26.1%
Go Ahead Eagles
45.8%

Team cards lines

Excelsior

Over 1.5
29.7%
Over 2.5
9.8%

Go Ahead Eagles

Over 1.5
43.1%
Over 2.5
18.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Excelsior's; Go Ahead Eagles gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Excelsior line Excelsior Go Ahead Eagles
-1.5 10.9% 89.1%
-0.5 28.1% 71.9%
+0.5 54.2% 45.8%
+1.5 77.4% 22.6%

Red card

Any red card9.6%
Excelsior red card2.2%
Go Ahead Eagles red card7.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 39.7% 60.3%
22.5 fouls 25.5% 74.5%
24.5 fouls 14.9% 85.1%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Excelsior Robin Hensgens 2 2.0 1.0
Go Ahead Eagles Robin Hensgens 2 2.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

ExcelsiorExcelsior

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Excelsior at home and Go Ahead Eagles away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Go Ahead EaglesGo Ahead Eagles
Statistic
Excelsior
Go Ahead Eagles
Yellow cards per game
1.5
0.9

First-half yellow cards per game
0.5
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
0.4

Matches with card data
3
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 1,676 matches we rated like this one (20–30%), Cards actually happened 36.9% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 25.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 47.0% for over 2.5 to 4.6% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.0%. Between the two sides, Go Ahead Eagles are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 26.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Excelsior over 1.5 cards sits at 29.7% and Go Ahead Eagles at 43.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.6% (Excelsior 2.2%, Go Ahead Eagles 7.6%). Excelsior’s most frequent referee this season, Robin Hensgens, has averaged 2.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

25.5%Over 3.5 cards
9.6%Any red card
45.8%Most cards: Go Ahead Eagles
29.7%Excelsior over 1.5 cards
43.1%Go Ahead Eagles over 1.5 cards
25.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 25.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherRobin Hensgens, Excelsior’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 9.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianGo Ahead Eagles are the pick to collect more cards at 45.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
ExcelsiorExcelsior

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Go Ahead EaglesGo Ahead Eagles
Statistic
Excelsior
Go Ahead Eagles
fouls per game
11.6
7.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 25.5% for Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles.
Will there be a red card in Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles?
The model rates a red card for either side at 9.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles?
The model rates Go Ahead Eagles to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 26.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Eredivisie, Cards

Willem II vs PEC Zwolle cards predictionFortuna Sittard vs Telstar cards predictionDen Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam cards predictionHeerenveen vs Feyenoord cards predictionTwente vs Ajax cards predictionAZ Alkmaar vs Groningen cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

EredivisieExcelsior fixtures and statsGo Ahead Eagles fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.