AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Eredivisie
For SittardFor SittardWDDWD
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1115:30UK
TelstarTelstarDLDLL

Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined63%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined37%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards37.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for For Sittard vs Telstar. Slightly more cards are projected for Telstar for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 59.3% 40.7%
3.5 cards 37.0% 63.0%
4.5 cards 19.8% 80.2%
5.5 cards 9.3% 90.7%

Who picks up more cards

For Sittard
37.2%
Level
23.9%
Telstar
38.9%

Team cards lines

For Sittard

Over 1.5
44.8%
Over 2.5
19.6%

Telstar

Over 1.5
46.1%
Over 2.5
20.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is For Sittard's; Telstar gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

For Sittard line For Sittard Telstar
-1.5 18.0% 82.1%
-0.5 37.2% 62.8%
+0.5 61.1% 38.9%
+1.5 80.8% 19.2%

Red card

Any red card14.8%
For Sittard red card11.0%
Telstar red card4.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 63.1% 36.9%
22.5 fouls 47.9% 52.1%
24.5 fouls 33.6% 66.4%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
For Sittard A. Bos 2 2.0 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

For SittardFor Sittard

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means For Sittard at home and Telstar away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

TelstarTelstar
Statistic
For Sittard
Telstar
Cards per game at this venue
·
1.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.0

Yellow cards per game
1.4
1.4

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.9
1.0

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
14.3%

Matches with card data
3
7
Red cards this season
·
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 37.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 59.3% for over 2.5 to 9.3% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 59.3%. On the card count, Telstar are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 38.9%, with a level count at 23.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, For Sittard over 1.5 cards sits at 44.8% and Telstar at 46.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.8% (For Sittard 11.0%, Telstar 4.3%). For Sittard’s most frequent referee this season, A. Bos, has averaged 2.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

37.0%Over 3.5 cards
14.8%Any red card
38.9%Most cards: Telstar
44.8%For Sittard over 1.5 cards
46.1%Telstar over 1.5 cards
47.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 37.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA. Bos, For Sittard’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.8%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianTelstar are the pick to collect more cards at 38.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
For SittardFor Sittard

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

TelstarTelstar
Statistic
For Sittard
Telstar
cards per game
·
1.7

fouls per game
9.2
10.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in For Sittard vs Telstar?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 37.0% for For Sittard vs Telstar.
Will there be a red card in For Sittard vs Telstar?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in For Sittard vs Telstar?
The model rates Telstar to pick up more cards at 38.9%, with a level count at 23.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.