Eredivisie
Willem II vs 
Nijmegen Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-4. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 39.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 61.3% for over 2.5 to 10.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 39.0%. Head to head on cards, Nijmegen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 23.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 21.3% | 78.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 10.2% | 89.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
40.7%
16.6%
52.8%
26.1%
Card handicap
| Willem II line | Willem II | Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.6% | 86.4% |
| -0.5 | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| +0.5 | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| +1.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 28.5% | 71.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Willem II cards per game14.0Willem II fouls per game2.0Nijmegen cards per game12.0Nijmegen fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Willem II vs Nijmegen. It tips Nijmegen for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
39.0%Over 3.5 cards8.2%Any red card40.7%Willem II over 1.5 cards52.8%Nijmegen over 1.5 cards42.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Willem II over 1.5 cards sits at 40.7% and Nijmegen at 52.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.2% (Willem II 3.9%, Nijmegen 4.5%). This season Willem II have averaged 1.0 cards a game and Nijmegen 2.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Willem II vs Nijmegen?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 39.0% for Willem II vs Nijmegen.
Will there be a red card in Willem II vs Nijmegen?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Willem II vs Nijmegen?
Before kickoff, the model rated Nijmegen to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 23.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,309 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.