Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs 
Telstar Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 33.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 55.6% for over 2.5 to 7.8% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.6%. Between the two sides, Telstar are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 24.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 33.5% | 66.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 17.3% | 82.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 7.8% | 92.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
37.8%
14.8%
47.4%
21.8%
Card handicap
| Heerenveen line | Heerenveen | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.8% | 86.2% |
| -0.5 | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| +0.5 | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| +1.5 | 77.3% | 22.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 23.8% | 76.2% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Heerenveen cards per game7.4Heerenveen fouls per game2.0Telstar cards per game11.2Telstar fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Heerenveen vs Telstar. Slightly more cards are projected for Telstar for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
33.5%Over 3.5 cards12.0%Any red card37.8%Heerenveen over 1.5 cards47.4%Telstar over 1.5 cards36.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Heerenveen over 1.5 cards sits at 37.8% and Telstar at 47.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.0% (Heerenveen 4.4%, Telstar 8.0%). This season Heerenveen have averaged 1.0 cards a game and Telstar 2.0.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Heerenveen vs Telstar?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 33.5% for Heerenveen vs Telstar.
Will there be a red card in Heerenveen vs Telstar?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Heerenveen vs Telstar?
The model rates Telstar to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 24.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,309 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.