Willem II vs Nijmegen: model prediction
EredivisieOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Nijmegen
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Nijmegen at 51.1%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 64.1% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 64.0% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Willem II or Nijmegen? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Nijmegen go into this Eredivisie meeting with Willem II on 15 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 51%. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Nijmegen at 61%. Caution noted. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 64% with both teams to score at 64%. Willem II are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: Willem II W0 D2 L4, Nijmegen W1 D3 L2. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Willem II, 2 draws and 2 for Nijmegen, averaging 1.8 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
26.0%+6.7%
22.9%+3.6%
51.1%-10.3%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19)
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Willem II 1 · 2 draws · Nijmegen 2 · 1.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Willem II
Nijmegen100.0%100.0%
100.0%100.0%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 2.78 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 84.2% | Over 7.5 | 75.7% | Over 8.5 | 65.8% | Over 9.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Willem II | 47.2% | Most: Nijmegen | 41.9% | ||||
| Willem II Over 4.2 | 57.0% | Nijmegen Over 4.2 | 53.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 61.3% | Over 3.5 | 39.0% | Over 4.5 | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Willem II | 30.5% | Most: Nijmegen | 46.4% | ||
| Willem II Over 1.8 | 40.7% | Nijmegen Over 1.8 | 52.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Willem II clean sheet | 14.2% |
|---|---|
| Nijmegen clean sheet | 25.6% |
| Willem II win to nil | 10.0% |
| Nijmegen win to nil | 21.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 26.0% | draw | 22.9% | away | 51.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 48.9% | 12 | 77.1% | X2 | 74.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 33.7% | away | 66.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 64.0% | no | 36.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 14.2% | away | 26.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 10.0% | away | 21.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 14.6% | home_by_2 | 7.4% | home_by_3plus | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.4% | away_by_2 | 15.6% | away_by_3plus | 14.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.2% | 0-1 | 6.7% | 0-2 | 7.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.6% | 0-4 | 2.2% | 0-5 | 0.9% |
| 1-0 | 4.5% | 1-1 | 10.2% | 1-2 | 9.5% |
| 1-3 | 6.2% | 1-4 | 3.0% | 1-5 | 1.2% |
| 2-0 | 3.4% | 2-1 | 6.5% | 2-2 | 6.4% |
| 2-3 | 4.2% | 2-4 | 2.0% | 2-5 | 0.8% |
| 3-0 | 1.5% | 3-1 | 2.9% | 3-2 | 2.9% |
| 3-3 | 1.9% | 3-4 | 0.9% | 3-5 | 0.4% |
| 4-0 | 0.5% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.3% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.8% | under_0.5 | 4.2% | over_1.5 | 84.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 15.4% | over_2.5 | 64.1% | under_2.5 | 35.9% |
| over_3.5 | 42.0% | under_3.5 | 58.0% | over_4.5 | 23.8% |
| under_4.5 | 76.2% | over_5.5 | 11.7% | under_5.5 | 88.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.0% | even | 51.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.0% | under_0.5 | 26.0% | over_1.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.0% | over_2.5 | 15.4% | under_2.5 | 84.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 85.8% | under_0.5 | 14.2% | over_1.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 41.9% | over_2.5 | 31.1% | under_2.5 | 68.9% |
most
| home | 26.0% | draw | 22.9% | away | 51.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.9% | away_+2.5 | 96.1% | home_-1.5 | 11.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 88.6% | home_-0.5 | 26.0% | away_+0.5 | 74.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 48.9% | away_-0.5 | 51.1% | home_+1.5 | 70.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 29.7% | home_+2.5 | 85.9% | away_-2.5 | 14.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.2% | exact_1 | 11.2% | exact_2 | 20.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 18.2% | exact_5 | 12.0% |
| exact_6 | 6.6% | exact_7plus | 5.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.2% | draw | 35.6% | away | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.8% | under_0.5 | 21.2% | over_1.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.1% | over_2.5 | 20.4% | under_2.5 | 79.6% |
btts
| yes | 28.5% | no | 71.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 21.2% | exact_1 | 32.9% | exact_2 | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 13.2% | exact_4plus | 7.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 15.9% | draw | 29.1% | away | 55.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 84.4% | under_0.5 | 15.6% | over_1.5 | 55.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 44.6% | over_2.5 | 28.5% | under_2.5 | 71.5% |
btts
| yes | 31.1% | no | 69.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 22.3% | H/D | 9.1% | H/A | 7.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 5.7% | D/D | 10.4% | D/A | 19.6% |
| A/H | 0.7% | A/D | 2.4% | A/A | 22.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.7% | under_7.5 | 20.3% | over_8.5 | 69.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.3% | over_9.5 | 58.4% | under_9.5 | 41.6% |
| over_10.5 | 46.9% | under_10.5 | 53.1% | over_11.5 | 36.0% |
| under_11.5 | 64.0% | over_12.5 | 26.5% | under_12.5 | 73.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.0% | under_3.5 | 25.0% | over_4.5 | 60.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.2% | over_5.5 | 46.2% | under_5.5 | 53.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 67.8% | under_3.5 | 32.2% | over_4.5 | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.9% | over_5.5 | 37.3% | under_5.5 | 62.7% |
most
| home | 50.9% | draw | 9.8% | away | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.7% | away_+3.5 | 76.3% | home_-1.5 | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 58.9% | home_-0.5 | 50.9% | away_+0.5 | 49.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 60.6% | away_-0.5 | 39.4% | home_+1.5 | 69.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 30.3% | home_+3.5 | 84.3% | away_-3.5 | 15.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.9% | under_22.5 | 28.2% | over_24.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 38.5% | over_26.5 | 50.5% | under_26.5 | 49.5% |
| over_28.5 | 39.7% | under_28.5 | 60.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.8% | under_10.5 | 26.2% | over_12.5 | 59.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 40.6% | over_14.5 | 44.7% | under_14.5 | 55.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 65.3% | under_10.5 | 34.8% | over_12.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 50.5% | over_14.5 | 34.8% | under_14.5 | 65.2% |
most
| home | 54.3% | draw | 5.5% | away | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 32.5% | away_+4.5 | 67.5% | home_-2.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 56.8% | home_-0.5 | 54.3% | away_+0.5 | 45.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 59.8% | away_-0.5 | 40.2% | home_+2.5 | 70.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 29.9% | home_+4.5 | 79.0% | away_-4.5 | 21.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 84.2% | under_6.5 | 15.8% | over_7.5 | 75.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 24.3% | over_8.5 | 65.8% | under_8.5 | 34.2% |
| over_9.5 | 55.2% | under_9.5 | 44.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.0% | under_3.5 | 28.0% | over_4.5 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.0% | over_5.5 | 42.3% | under_5.5 | 57.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 69.0% | under_3.5 | 31.0% | over_4.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.7% | over_5.5 | 38.5% | under_5.5 | 61.5% |
most
| home | 47.2% | draw | 10.9% | away | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.0% | away_+2.5 | 73.0% | home_-0.5 | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.8% | home_+0.5 | 58.1% | away_-0.5 | 41.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 77.3% | away_-2.5 | 22.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 61.3% | under_2.5 | 38.7% | over_3.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 61.0% | over_4.5 | 21.3% | under_4.5 | 78.6% |
| over_5.5 | 10.2% | under_5.5 | 89.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.9% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 40.7% | under_1.5 | 59.3% | over_2.5 | 16.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 83.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 52.8% | under_1.5 | 47.2% | over_2.5 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.9% |
most
| home | 30.5% | draw | 23.1% | away | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 13.6% | away_+1.5 | 86.4% | home_-0.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.5% | home_+0.5 | 53.6% | away_-0.5 | 46.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.0% | away_-1.5 | 25.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 57.6% | under_20.5 | 42.4% | over_22.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 57.7% | over_24.5 | 28.5% | under_24.5 | 71.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 60.1% | under_9.5 | 39.9% | over_11.5 | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.7% | over_13.5 | 20.8% | under_13.5 | 79.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 64.4% | under_9.5 | 35.7% | over_11.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 57.2% | over_13.5 | 24.4% | under_13.5 | 75.6% |
most
| home | 42.9% | draw | 7.8% | away | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.3% | away_+3.5 | 77.7% | home_-0.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.1% | home_+2.5 | 65.8% | away_-2.5 | 34.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 8.2% | no | 91.8% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.9% | no | 96.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.5% | no | 95.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Willem II predictions · Nijmegen predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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