Eredivisie
Zwolle vs 
Feyenoord Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 31.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 53.1% for over 2.5 to 6.7% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.1%. Between the two sides, Feyenoord are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 24.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 15.5% | 84.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 6.7% | 93.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
35.8%
13.5%
45.6%
20.4%
Card handicap
| Zwolle line | Zwolle | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.3% | 86.7% |
| -0.5 | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| +0.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| +1.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.1% | 70.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Zwolle cards per game11.8Zwolle fouls per game0.8Feyenoord cards per game8.8Feyenoord fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Zwolle vs Feyenoord. The model leans toward Feyenoord for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
31.0%Over 3.5 cards20.2%Any red card35.8%Zwolle over 1.5 cards45.6%Feyenoord over 1.5 cards42.9%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Zwolle over 1.5 cards sits at 35.8% and Feyenoord at 45.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.2% (Zwolle 15.5%, Feyenoord 5.5%). This season Zwolle have averaged 1.6 cards a game and Feyenoord 0.8.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 31.0% for Zwolle vs Feyenoord.
Will there be a red card in Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
The model rates Feyenoord to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 24.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,309 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.