Eredivisie
Excelsior vs 
Utrecht Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 33.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 55.5% for over 2.5 to 7.7% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.5%. Between the two sides, Utrecht are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.6%, with a level count at 23.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 7.7% | 92.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
33.5%
12.0%
51.1%
24.9%
Card handicap
| Excelsior line | Excelsior | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10.8% | 89.2% |
| -0.5 | 26.7% | 73.3% |
| +0.5 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| +1.5 | 73.1% | 27.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 54.4% | 45.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 25.7% | 74.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Excelsior cards per game12.6Excelsior fouls per game2.6Utrecht cards per game18.0Utrecht fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Excelsior vs Utrecht. The model leans toward Utrecht for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
33.4%Over 3.5 cards11.0%Any red card33.5%Excelsior over 1.5 cards51.1%Utrecht over 1.5 cards39.0%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Excelsior over 1.5 cards sits at 33.5% and Utrecht at 51.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.0% (Excelsior 5.3%, Utrecht 5.9%). This season Excelsior have averaged 1.4 cards a game and Utrecht 2.6.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Excelsior vs Utrecht?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 33.4% for Excelsior vs Utrecht.
Will there be a red card in Excelsior vs Utrecht?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Excelsior vs Utrecht?
The model rates Utrecht to pick up more cards at 49.6%, with a level count at 23.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,309 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.