Eredivisie
Willem II vs 
Nijmegen Corners
Result
Settled, final score 1-4. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 55.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 79.7% for over 7.5 to 26.5% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.9%. Between the two sides, Willem II are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 50.9%, with a level count at 9.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| 11.5 corners | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 26.5% | 73.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.0%
60.8%
46.2%
67.8%
52.1%
37.3%
Corner handicap
| Willem II line | Willem II | Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| -0.5 | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| +0.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| +1.5 | 69.8% | 30.3% |
This season (2026/27)
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Willem II.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Willem II over 4.5 corners sits at 60.8% and Nijmegen at 52.1%. This season Willem II have averaged 2.0 corners won a game and Nijmegen 13.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Willem II vs Nijmegen?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 58.4% for Willem II vs Nijmegen.
Which team will win the corner count in Willem II vs Nijmegen?
Before kickoff, the model rated Willem II to win the corner count at 50.9%, with a level count at 9.8%.
How many corners do Willem II and Nijmegen average this season?
Willem II have won 2.0 corners a game this season and Nijmegen 13.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.