Eredivisie
Willem II vs 
Nijmegen Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-4. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 61.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.9% for over 22.5 to 39.7% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.5%. Between the two sides, Willem II are the model’s pick to have more shots at 54.3%, with a level count at 5.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 71.9% | 28.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 39.7% | 60.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.8%
59.4%
44.7%
65.3%
49.5%
34.8%
Shot handicap
| Willem II line | Willem II | Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| -2.5 | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| -0.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| +0.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 84.2% | 15.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 55.2% | 44.8% |
This season (2026/27)
13.0Willem II shots per game27.0Nijmegen shots per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Willem II.
In-depth analysis
61.5%Over 24.5 shots59.4%Willem II over 12.5 shots49.5%Nijmegen over 12.5 shots75.7%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Willem II over 12.5 shots sits at 59.4% and Nijmegen at 49.5%. This season Willem II have averaged 13.0 shots a game and Nijmegen 27.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Willem II vs Nijmegen?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 61.5% for Willem II vs Nijmegen.
Which team will have more shots in Willem II vs Nijmegen?
Before kickoff, the model rated Willem II to take more shots at 54.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.