Eredivisie
Willem II vs 
Nijmegen Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Willem II or Nijmegen (77.1%), landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Away at 77.1%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Nijmegen are favoured at 51.1%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Willem II by 1 | 14.6% |
| Willem II by 2 | 7.4% |
| Willem II by 3+ | 3.9% |
| Nijmegen by 1 | 21.4% |
| Nijmegen by 2 | 15.6% |
| Nijmegen by 3+ | 14.1% |
| Draw | 22.9% |
Goal handicap
| Willem II line | Willem II | Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 26.0% | 74.0% |
| +0.5 | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| +1.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| +2.5 | 85.9% | 14.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Willem II goals scored per game4.0Willem II goals conceded per game1.0Nijmegen goals scored per game2.0Nijmegen goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Willem II or Nijmegen on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
64.0%Both Teams to Score64.1%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Nijmegen are favoured at 51.1%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Willem II 1 · 2 draws · Nijmegen 2 · 1.8 goals/game.
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Willem II vs Nijmegen?
Home or Away was the highest-probability cover at 77.1%; it landed, final score 1-4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.