Sevilla vs Vallecano: model prediction

La Liga

Sevilla

WWWLL

Sat, 15 Aug 202610:30UK

Vallecano

WDDWW

Model’s top convictions

69%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Sevilla or draw

61%

Draw or Vallecano

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

SevillaWin probability

39.2%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals69.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.45

Sevilla or draw68.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.47

Draw or Vallecano60.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

"39% on Sevilla is a measurement, not a promise." Little between these two in the data. Sevilla at 39% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 15 August 2026. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 42% with both teams to score at 49%. Form guide over the last six: Sevilla W3 D0 L3, Vallecano W3 D3 L0. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Sevilla, 2 draws and 0 for Vallecano, averaging 1.8 goals a game. Akor Adams drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners46.8%@ 2.14

Over 2.5 goals42.0%@ 2.38

Over 10.5 corners36.6%@ 2.73

Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals58.0%@ 1.72

Over 8.5 corners57.8%@ 1.73

Not both teams to score51.4%@ 1.95

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.8%@ 7.26

1-0 correct score10.9%@ 9.20

0-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.91

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Sevilla

39.2%

Draw

29.1%

Vallecano

31.8%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.569.0%

Strong chance

Over 2.542.0%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes48.6%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.557.8%

Good chance

Over 9.546.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.536.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.527.5%

Low chance

Most cornersSevilla 56.3% · Vallecano 32.8%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.569.0%2.542.0%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.569.0%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

SevillaWWWLL

VallecanoWDDWW

Last 5 meetings: Sevilla 3 · 2 draws · Vallecano 0 · 1.8 goals/game.

2026-03-08Sevilla 1-1 Vallecano

2025-09-28Vallecano 0-1 Sevilla

2025-03-01Vallecano 1-1 Sevilla

2024-11-24Sevilla 1-0 Vallecano

2024-02-05Vallecano 1-2 Sevilla

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

Sevilla

Vallecano

League position#15 of 20#8 of 20

Record W-D-L12-7-1912-14-12

Current streakL2W2

Points per game1.131.32

Record, home vs away7-4-85-4-10

PPG, home vs away1.321.00

Goals scored per game1.211.08

Goals conceded per game1.581.16

Scored, home vs away1.260.89

Conceded, home vs away1.321.53

1st half goals per game0.500.50

2nd half goals per game0.710.58

Corners won per game4.85.7

Cards per game3.02.9

Fouls per game14.813.5

Red cards this season59

Shots on target per game3.64.8

xG for per game1.041.58

xG against per game1.611.48

Over 2.5 rate

55.3%36.8%

BTTS rate

57.9%44.7%

Clean sheets

15.8%31.6%

Rates this season:SevillaVallecano

League averages this season: 2.69 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Akor AdamsSevilla · key player

To score24.0%

@ 4.17

1+ on target55.2%

@ 1.81

2+ shots52.2%

@ 1.92

Shots/90 2.61SoT/90 1.2Goals/90 0.41

Dodi LukebakioSevilla · in form

To score26.1%

@ 3.83

1+ on target63.1%

@ 1.58

2+ shots69.1%

@ 1.45

Shots/90 2.62SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.33

Isaac RomeroSevilla · in form

To score12.2%

@ 8.20

1+ on target41.5%

@ 2.41

2+ shots47.0%

@ 2.13

Shots/90 2.31SoT/90 0.78Goals/90 0.19

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sevilla win2.67

Draw3.42

Vallecano win3.00

Both teams to score2.06

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11

Over 1.5 goals1.45

Over 2.5 goals2.38

Over 3.5 goals4.68

Sevilla most2.67

Vallecano most3.00

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.39

Over 8.5 corners1.67

Over 9.5 corners2.10

Over 10.5 corners2.78

Sevilla most1.77

Vallecano most3.04

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.15

Over 3.5 cards1.37

Over 4.5 cards1.80

Over 5.5 cards2.59

Sevilla most2.66

Vallecano most2.25

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.46

Over 7.5 SoT1.81

Over 8.5 SoT2.37

Over 9.5 SoT3.29

Sevilla most1.84

Vallecano most3.06

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.72

Over 24.5 shots2.20

Over 26.5 shots3.00

Over 28.5 shots4.34

Sevilla most1.60

Vallecano most3.19

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.24

Over 22.5 fouls1.45

Over 24.5 fouls1.79

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	68.3%	Over 7.5	55.2%	Over 8.5	42.2%	Over 9.5	30.4%
Most: Sevilla	54.3%	Most: Vallecano	32.7%
Sevilla Over 4.2	45.8%	Vallecano Over 4.2	30.3%

Cards

Over 2.5	86.9%	Over 3.5	72.9%	Over 4.5	55.7%
Most: Sevilla	37.6%	Most: Vallecano	44.5%
Sevilla Over 1.8	68.4%	Vallecano Over 1.8	72.5%

Sevilla: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Akor Adams	2.61	1.2	0.41	55.2%	52.2%	24.0%
Dodi Lukebakio	2.62	1.09	0.33	63.1%	69.1%	26.1%
Isaac Romero	2.31	0.78	0.19	41.5%	47.0%	12.2%
Neal Maupay	1.73	0.71	0.2	44.1%	41.4%	15.1%
Suso	2.52	0.63	0	22.1%	26.5%	0.0%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	37.5%	draw	29.2%	away	33.3%

double_chance

1X	66.7%	12	70.8%	X2	62.5%

dnb

home	52.9%	away	47.1%

btts

yes	48.6%	no	51.4%

clean_sheet

home	32.0%	away	29.4%

win_to_nil

home	22.0%	away	19.3%

winning_margin

home_by_1	21.0%	home_by_2	11.0%	home_by_3plus	5.5%
away_by_1	19.5%	away_by_2	9.5%	away_by_3plus	4.4%

correct_score

0-0	10.1%	0-1	10.1%	0-2	6.1%
0-3	2.3%	0-4	0.7%	0-5	0.2%
1-0	10.9%	1-1	13.8%	1-2	7.5%
1-3	2.8%	1-4	0.8%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	7.0%	2-1	8.0%	2-2	4.6%
2-3	1.7%	2-4	0.5%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	2.9%	3-1	3.3%	3-2	1.9%
3-3	0.7%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	0.9%	4-1	1.0%	4-2	0.6%
4-3	0.2%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.2%	5-1	0.3%	5-2	0.1%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.3%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.8%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	89.9%	under_0.5	10.1%	over_1.5	69.0%
under_1.5	31.0%	over_2.5	42.1%	under_2.5	58.0%
over_3.5	21.4%	under_3.5	78.6%	over_4.5	9.1%
under_4.5	90.9%	over_5.5	3.4%	under_5.5	96.6%

odd_even

odd	48.2%	even	51.8%

team_home

over_0.5	70.6%	under_0.5	29.4%	over_1.5	34.6%
under_1.5	65.4%	over_2.5	12.6%	under_2.5	87.4%

team_away

over_0.5	68.0%	under_0.5	32.0%	over_1.5	31.5%
under_1.5	68.5%	over_2.5	10.8%	under_2.5	89.2%

most

home	37.5%	draw	29.2%	away	33.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	5.5%	away_+2.5	94.5%	home_-1.5	16.5%
away_+1.5	83.5%	home_-0.5	37.5%	away_+0.5	62.5%
home_+0.5	66.7%	away_-0.5	33.3%	home_+1.5	86.2%
away_-1.5	13.8%	home_+2.5	95.6%	away_-2.5	4.4%

total_exact

exact_0	10.1%	exact_1	20.9%	exact_2	26.9%
exact_3	20.7%	exact_4	12.2%	exact_5	5.8%
exact_6	2.3%	exact_7plus	1.1%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	28.9%	draw	45.1%	away	26.0%

total

over_0.5	65.4%	under_0.5	34.6%	over_1.5	28.7%
under_1.5	71.4%	over_2.5	9.2%	under_2.5	90.8%

btts

yes	16.9%	no	83.1%

total_exact

exact_0	34.6%	exact_1	36.7%	exact_2	19.5%
exact_3	6.9%	exact_4plus	2.3%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	31.8%	draw	41.5%	away	26.7%

total

over_0.5	70.5%	under_0.5	29.5%	over_1.5	34.5%
under_1.5	65.5%	over_2.5	12.5%	under_2.5	87.5%

btts

yes	20.8%	no	79.2%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	22.7%	H/D	4.7%	H/A	1.5%
D/H	14.3%	D/D	18.7%	D/A	12.0%
A/H	1.9%	A/D	5.0%	A/A	19.2%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	71.9%	under_7.5	28.1%	over_8.5	60.0%
under_8.5	40.0%	over_9.5	47.7%	under_9.5	52.3%
over_10.5	36.0%	under_10.5	64.0%	over_11.5	25.9%
under_11.5	74.1%	over_12.5	17.7%	under_12.5	82.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	74.0%	under_3.5	26.0%	over_4.5	58.7%
under_4.5	41.3%	over_5.5	43.4%	under_5.5	56.7%

team_away

over_3.5	58.2%	under_3.5	41.9%	over_4.5	40.7%
under_4.5	59.3%	over_5.5	26.1%	under_5.5	73.9%

most

home	56.4%	draw	10.7%	away	32.9%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.2%	away_+3.5	74.9%	home_-1.5	45.3%
away_+1.5	54.7%	home_-0.5	56.4%	away_+0.5	43.6%
home_+0.5	67.1%	away_-0.5	32.9%	home_+1.5	76.5%
away_-1.5	23.5%	home_+3.5	90.0%	away_-3.5	10.0%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	58.2%	under_22.5	41.8%	over_24.5	45.4%
under_24.5	54.6%	over_26.5	33.4%	under_26.5	66.6%
over_28.5	23.1%	under_28.5	77.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	70.9%	under_10.5	29.1%	over_12.5	54.0%
under_12.5	46.0%	over_14.5	37.5%	under_14.5	62.5%

team_away

over_10.5	49.6%	under_10.5	50.4%	over_12.5	31.6%
under_12.5	68.4%	over_14.5	18.0%	under_14.5	82.0%

most

home	62.6%	draw	6.0%	away	31.4%

handicap

home_-4.5	36.9%	away_+4.5	63.1%	home_-2.5	49.7%
away_+2.5	50.3%	home_-0.5	62.6%	away_+0.5	37.4%
home_+0.5	68.6%	away_-0.5	31.4%	home_+2.5	79.2%
away_-2.5	20.8%	home_+4.5	87.3%	away_-4.5	12.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	68.3%	under_6.5	31.7%	over_7.5	55.2%
under_7.5	44.8%	over_8.5	42.2%	under_8.5	57.8%
over_9.5	30.4%	under_9.5	69.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	63.6%	under_3.5	36.4%	over_4.5	45.8%
under_4.5	54.2%	over_5.5	30.0%	under_5.5	70.0%

team_away

over_3.5	48.3%	under_3.5	51.7%	over_4.5	30.3%
under_4.5	69.7%	over_5.5	17.1%	under_5.5	82.9%

most

home	54.3%	draw	13.0%	away	32.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	28.6%	away_+2.5	71.4%	home_-0.5	54.3%
away_+0.5	45.7%	home_+0.5	67.3%	away_-0.5	32.7%
home_+2.5	87.0%	away_-2.5	13.0%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	86.9%	under_2.5	13.1%	over_3.5	72.9%
under_3.5	27.1%	over_4.5	55.7%	under_4.5	44.3%
over_5.5	38.7%	under_5.5	61.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	68.4%	under_1.5	31.6%	over_2.5	42.8%
under_2.5	57.2%

team_away

over_1.5	72.5%	under_1.5	27.5%	over_2.5	48.0%
under_2.5	52.0%

most

home	37.6%	draw	17.9%	away	44.5%

handicap

home_-1.5	22.2%	away_+1.5	77.8%	home_-0.5	37.6%
away_+0.5	62.4%	home_+0.5	55.5%	away_-0.5	44.5%
home_+1.5	72.1%	away_-1.5	27.9%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	80.6%	under_20.5	19.4%	over_22.5	69.1%
under_22.5	30.9%	over_24.5	55.8%	under_24.5	44.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	75.9%	under_9.5	24.1%	over_11.5	57.2%
under_11.5	42.8%	over_13.5	38.0%	under_13.5	62.0%

team_away

over_9.5	80.1%	under_9.5	19.9%	over_11.5	62.8%
under_11.5	37.2%	over_13.5	43.9%	under_13.5	56.1%

most

home	42.4%	draw	6.9%	away	50.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	23.9%	away_+3.5	76.1%	home_-0.5	42.4%
away_+0.5	57.6%	home_+2.5	62.8%	away_-2.5	37.2%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	20.6%	no	79.4%

home

yes	10.3%	no	89.7%

away

yes	11.5%	no	88.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sevilla predictions · Vallecano predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.