AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
West HamWest HamWDDWW
Full time2-3Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
SouthamptonSouthamptonWLWWD

West Ham 2-3 Southampton cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.7%

Result

West Ham2-3Southampton
3 yellow cardsWest Ham 1, Southampton 2
0 red cardsWest Ham 0, Southampton 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 53.3% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 80.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Michael Salisbury

Recorded match referee.

Michael Salisbury in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 175 5
Goals 2.86 3.20
Yellow cards 3.35 3.60
Red cards 0.21 0.00
Corners 10.1 11.6
Fouls 23.0 23.4
Both teams scored 55% 60%
Over 2.5 goals 56% 60%
Home wins 50% 60%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 West Ham vs Southampton 2-3 5 Yes 3 0 19 23
11 Oct 2026 Hull vs EvertonPremier League 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 13 19
14 Sep 2026 Leeds vs NewcastlePremier League 4-1 5 Yes 3 0 10 21
5 Sep 2026 West Brom vs Watford 1-0 1 No 8 0 9 29
30 Aug 2026 Sunderland vs FulhamPremier League 1-0 1 No 2 0 7 25
17 May 2026 Manchester United vs Nottingham ForestPremier League 3-2 5 Yes 3 0 13 16
9 May 2026 Manchester City vs BrentfordPremier League 3-0 3 No 6 0 12 22
22 Apr 2026 Bournemouth vs LeedsPremier League 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 13 16
12 Apr 2026 Nottingham Forest vs Aston VillaPremier League 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 10 25
3 Apr 2026 Stoke vs Sheffield Weds 2-0 2 No 3 0 9 27

Michael Salisbury referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for West Ham vs Southampton. It tips West Ham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.6% 26.4%
3.5 cards 53.3% 46.7%
4.5 cards 33.8% 66.2%
5.5 cards 18.9% 81.1%

Who picks up more cards

West Ham
40.2%
Level
21.2%
Southampton
38.6%

Team cards lines

West Ham

Over 1.5
57.6%
Over 2.5
30.6%

Southampton

Over 1.5
56.5%
Over 2.5
29.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is West Ham's; Southampton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

West Ham line West Ham Southampton
-1.5 21.9% 78.1%
-0.5 40.2% 59.8%
+0.5 61.4% 38.6%
+1.5 79.4% 20.6%

Red card

Any red card19.1%
West Ham red card6.3%
Southampton red card13.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 56.4% 43.6%
22.5 fouls 40.6% 59.4%
24.5 fouls 26.6% 73.4%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
West Ham J Smith 2 3.5 3.0
Southampton A Herczeg 2 5.0 3.0
Southampton M Donohue 2 7.5 2.5
Southampton S Martin 2 6.5 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 53.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.6% for over 2.5 to 18.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.3%. On the card count, West Ham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.2%, with a level count at 21.2%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, West Ham over 1.5 cards sits at 57.6% and Southampton at 56.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.1% (West Ham 6.3%, Southampton 13.7%). West Ham’s most frequent referee this season, J Smith, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

53.3%Over 3.5 cards
19.1%Any red card
40.2%Most cards: West Ham
57.6%West Ham over 1.5 cards
56.5%Southampton over 1.5 cards
40.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ Smith, West Ham’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 19.1%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianWest Ham are the pick to collect more cards at 40.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.

FAQ

How many cards in West Ham vs Southampton?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.3% for West Ham vs Southampton.
Will there be a red card in West Ham vs Southampton?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 19.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in West Ham vs Southampton?
Before kickoff, the model rated West Ham to pick up more cards at 40.2%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Championship, Cards

Sheffield United vs Wrexham cards predictionLincoln vs Birmingham cards predictionNorwich vs Watford cards predictionStoke vs Preston cards predictionBolton vs Bristol City cards predictionBurnley vs Portsmouth cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

ChampionshipWest Ham fixtures and statsSouthampton fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.