Championship
West Ham vs Queens Park Rangers Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 52.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 65.0% for over 22.5 to 29.1% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. Head to head on shots, West Ham are the model’s pick to have more shots at 64.6%, with a level count at 5.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 40.3% | 59.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 29.1% | 70.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
76.0%
60.3%
44.0%
53.0%
34.9%
20.6%
Shot handicap
| West Ham line | West Ham | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| -2.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| -0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| +0.5 | 70.4% | 29.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 34.4% | 65.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
15.9West Ham shots per game12.0West Ham shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for West Ham.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
52.6%Over 24.5 shots60.3%West Ham over 12.5 shots34.9%Queens Park Rangers over 12.5 shots58.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, West Ham over 12.5 shots sits at 60.3% and Queens Park Rangers at 34.9%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in West Ham vs Queens Park Rangers?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 52.6% for West Ham vs Queens Park Rangers.
Which team will have more shots in West Ham vs Queens Park Rangers?
The model rates West Ham to take more shots at 64.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
