Shots
| Over 22.5 |
65.2% |
Over 24.5 |
53.8% |
Over 26.5 |
42.4% |
Over 28.5 |
31.8% |
| Most: Fulham |
58.1% |
Most: Manchester United |
36.3% |
| Fulham Over 13.2 |
48.9% |
Manchester United Over 13.2 |
33.4% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
70.7% |
Over 7.5 |
58.8% |
Over 8.5 |
46.7% |
Over 9.5 |
35.5% |
| Most: Fulham |
48.1% |
Most: Manchester United |
39.5% |
| Fulham Over 4.2 |
44.3% |
Manchester United Over 4.2 |
38.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
69.0% |
Over 3.5 |
47.6% |
Over 4.5 |
28.5% |
| Most: Fulham |
36.0% |
Most: Manchester United |
42.0% |
| Fulham Over 1.8 |
50.8% |
Manchester United Over 1.8 |
55.3% |
Fulham: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Rodrigo Muniz |
3.42 |
1.18 |
0.48 |
35.1% |
35.7% |
16.1% |
| Kevin |
2.25 |
0.87 |
0.09 |
29.3% |
22.6% |
3.5% |
| Joshua King |
2.04 |
0.76 |
0.15 |
28.8% |
23.2% |
6.5% |
| Gonzalo García |
2.32 |
0.75 |
0.48 |
25.7% |
23.4% |
17.3% |
| Alex Iwobi |
1.73 |
0.67 |
0.2 |
45.8% |
46.8% |
16.7% |
Manchester United: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Benjamin Sesko |
2.98 |
1.49 |
0.57 |
63.7% |
60.2% |
32.2% |
| Matheus Cunha |
3.44 |
1.29 |
0.42 |
67.4% |
79.9% |
30.6% |
| Marcus Rashford |
3.27 |
1.18 |
0.37 |
51.4% |
59.3% |
20.2% |
| Bryan Mbeumo |
2.45 |
1.06 |
0.44 |
63.6% |
67.8% |
34.3% |
| Bruno Fernandes |
2.7 |
0.81 |
0.29 |
54.0% |
73.0% |
24.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Fulham clean sheet |
21.9% |
| Manchester United clean sheet |
27.4% |
| Fulham win to nil |
15.3% |
| Manchester United win to nil |
20.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
31.8% |
draw |
26.2% |
away |
42.0% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
58.0% |
12 |
73.8% |
X2 |
68.2% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
17.8% |
home_by_2 |
9.2% |
home_by_3plus |
4.8% |
| away_by_1 |
21.0% |
away_by_2 |
12.7% |
away_by_3plus |
8.3% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
6.6% |
0-1 |
8.6% |
0-2 |
6.9% |
| 0-3 |
3.5% |
0-4 |
1.3% |
0-5 |
0.4% |
| 1-0 |
7.2% |
1-1 |
12.4% |
1-2 |
9.0% |
| 1-3 |
4.5% |
1-4 |
1.7% |
1-5 |
0.5% |
| 2-0 |
5.0% |
2-1 |
7.6% |
2-2 |
5.8% |
| 2-3 |
2.9% |
2-4 |
1.1% |
2-5 |
0.3% |
| 3-0 |
2.2% |
3-1 |
3.3% |
3-2 |
2.5% |
| 3-3 |
1.3% |
3-4 |
0.5% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
0.7% |
4-1 |
1.1% |
4-2 |
0.8% |
| 4-3 |
0.4% |
4-4 |
0.2% |
4-5 |
0.1% |
| 5-0 |
0.2% |
5-1 |
0.3% |
5-2 |
0.2% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
12.4% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
93.4% |
under_0.5 |
6.6% |
over_1.5 |
77.6% |
| under_1.5 |
22.4% |
over_2.5 |
53.2% |
under_2.5 |
46.8% |
| over_3.5 |
31.0% |
under_3.5 |
69.1% |
over_4.5 |
15.3% |
| under_4.5 |
84.7% |
over_5.5 |
6.6% |
under_5.5 |
93.4% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
72.5% |
under_0.5 |
27.5% |
over_1.5 |
37.0% |
| under_1.5 |
63.0% |
over_2.5 |
14.1% |
under_2.5 |
85.9% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
78.0% |
under_0.5 |
22.0% |
over_1.5 |
44.7% |
| under_1.5 |
55.3% |
over_2.5 |
19.5% |
under_2.5 |
80.5% |
|
most
| home |
31.8% |
draw |
26.2% |
away |
42.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
4.8% |
away_+2.5 |
95.2% |
home_-1.5 |
14.0% |
| away_+1.5 |
86.0% |
home_-0.5 |
31.8% |
away_+0.5 |
68.2% |
| home_+0.5 |
58.0% |
away_-0.5 |
42.0% |
home_+1.5 |
79.0% |
| away_-1.5 |
21.0% |
home_+2.5 |
91.7% |
away_-2.5 |
8.3% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
6.6% |
exact_1 |
15.8% |
exact_2 |
24.4% |
| exact_3 |
22.3% |
exact_4 |
15.6% |
exact_5 |
8.8% |
| exact_6 |
4.1% |
exact_7plus |
2.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
27.2% |
draw |
44.8% |
away |
28.0% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
65.8% |
under_0.5 |
34.2% |
over_1.5 |
29.1% |
| under_1.5 |
70.9% |
over_2.5 |
9.4% |
under_2.5 |
90.6% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
34.2% |
exact_1 |
36.7% |
exact_2 |
19.7% |
| exact_3 |
7.0% |
exact_4plus |
2.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
28.2% |
draw |
33.3% |
away |
38.5% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
82.6% |
under_0.5 |
17.4% |
over_1.5 |
52.1% |
| under_1.5 |
47.9% |
over_2.5 |
25.5% |
under_2.5 |
74.5% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
18.3% |
H/D |
5.6% |
H/A |
3.2% |
| D/H |
12.6% |
D/D |
14.9% |
D/A |
17.3% |
| A/H |
2.0% |
A/D |
4.5% |
A/A |
21.5% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
75.2% |
under_7.5 |
24.8% |
over_8.5 |
64.4% |
| under_8.5 |
35.6% |
over_9.5 |
52.8% |
under_9.5 |
47.2% |
| over_10.5 |
41.4% |
under_10.5 |
58.6% |
over_11.5 |
31.1% |
| under_11.5 |
68.9% |
over_12.5 |
22.3% |
under_12.5 |
77.7% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
72.9% |
under_3.5 |
27.1% |
over_4.5 |
58.3% |
| under_4.5 |
41.7% |
over_5.5 |
43.8% |
under_5.5 |
56.2% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
63.3% |
under_3.5 |
36.7% |
over_4.5 |
47.2% |
| under_4.5 |
52.8% |
over_5.5 |
32.7% |
under_5.5 |
67.3% |
|
most
| home |
52.3% |
draw |
10.0% |
away |
37.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
24.1% |
away_+3.5 |
75.9% |
home_-1.5 |
42.2% |
| away_+1.5 |
57.8% |
home_-0.5 |
52.3% |
away_+0.5 |
47.7% |
| home_+0.5 |
62.3% |
away_-0.5 |
37.7% |
home_+1.5 |
71.5% |
| away_-1.5 |
28.5% |
home_+3.5 |
85.9% |
away_-3.5 |
14.1% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
65.1% |
under_22.5 |
34.8% |
over_24.5 |
53.8% |
| under_24.5 |
46.2% |
over_26.5 |
42.4% |
under_26.5 |
57.6% |
| over_28.5 |
31.8% |
under_28.5 |
68.2% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
71.7% |
under_10.5 |
28.3% |
over_12.5 |
56.6% |
| under_12.5 |
43.4% |
over_14.5 |
41.5% |
under_14.5 |
58.5% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
57.5% |
under_10.5 |
42.5% |
over_12.5 |
40.9% |
| under_12.5 |
59.1% |
over_14.5 |
26.7% |
under_14.5 |
73.3% |
|
most
| home |
58.1% |
draw |
5.6% |
away |
36.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
35.2% |
away_+4.5 |
64.8% |
home_-2.5 |
46.5% |
| away_+2.5 |
53.5% |
home_-0.5 |
58.1% |
away_+0.5 |
41.9% |
| home_+0.5 |
63.7% |
away_-0.5 |
36.3% |
home_+2.5 |
74.0% |
| away_-2.5 |
26.0% |
home_+4.5 |
82.5% |
away_-4.5 |
17.5% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
70.7% |
under_6.5 |
29.3% |
over_7.5 |
58.8% |
| under_7.5 |
41.2% |
over_8.5 |
46.7% |
under_8.5 |
53.3% |
| over_9.5 |
35.5% |
under_9.5 |
64.5% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
61.2% |
under_3.5 |
38.8% |
over_4.5 |
44.3% |
| under_4.5 |
55.7% |
over_5.5 |
29.8% |
under_5.5 |
70.3% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
55.3% |
under_3.5 |
44.8% |
over_4.5 |
38.1% |
| under_4.5 |
61.9% |
over_5.5 |
24.3% |
under_5.5 |
75.7% |
|
most
| home |
48.1% |
draw |
12.4% |
away |
39.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
25.3% |
away_+2.5 |
74.7% |
home_-0.5 |
48.1% |
| away_+0.5 |
51.9% |
home_+0.5 |
60.5% |
away_-0.5 |
39.5% |
| home_+2.5 |
81.2% |
away_-2.5 |
18.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
69.0% |
under_2.5 |
31.0% |
over_3.5 |
47.6% |
| under_3.5 |
52.4% |
over_4.5 |
28.5% |
under_4.5 |
71.5% |
| over_5.5 |
15.0% |
under_5.5 |
85.0% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
50.8% |
under_1.5 |
49.2% |
over_2.5 |
24.4% |
| under_2.5 |
75.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
55.3% |
under_1.5 |
44.7% |
over_2.5 |
28.4% |
| under_2.5 |
71.6% |
most
| home |
35.9% |
draw |
22.0% |
away |
42.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
18.1% |
away_+1.5 |
81.9% |
home_-0.5 |
35.9% |
| away_+0.5 |
64.1% |
home_+0.5 |
58.0% |
away_-0.5 |
42.0% |
| home_+1.5 |
77.4% |
away_-1.5 |
22.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
49.9% |
under_20.5 |
50.1% |
over_22.5 |
33.8% |
| under_22.5 |
66.2% |
over_24.5 |
20.6% |
under_24.5 |
79.4% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
58.1% |
under_9.5 |
41.9% |
over_11.5 |
35.0% |
| under_11.5 |
65.0% |
over_13.5 |
17.3% |
under_13.5 |
82.7% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
57.4% |
under_9.5 |
42.6% |
over_11.5 |
34.2% |
| under_11.5 |
65.8% |
over_13.5 |
16.8% |
under_13.5 |
83.2% |
|
most
| home |
46.3% |
draw |
8.5% |
away |
45.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
23.2% |
away_+3.5 |
76.8% |
home_-0.5 |
46.3% |
| away_+0.5 |
53.7% |
home_+2.5 |
70.8% |
away_-2.5 |
29.2% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Premier League
Fulham
Manchester United